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The Conscience of Thoroughbred Racing

CFB: HUGE UPSET WEEKEND

Michigan over PENN ST by 3

And now for the latest episode of ‘I’m Jim, not John’. Much like the last three weeks, we’ll watch to see if No. 16 Michigan goes down in flames on Saturday night, along with Jim Harbaugh’s UM coaching legacy, by suffering loss No. 2 – which would likely prolong the Wolverines’ annual exclusion from the Big Ten title game. It won’t happen here, though:

In spite of their 42 PPG “powerhouse” offense, the No. 7 Nits have not piled up the points against respectable foes, scoring only 17 in wins over Pitt and Iowa.

This marks the second straight bruising defense that the Lions will go up against and the 17 points they put on the board last week at Iowa City will not work tonight (they’ve scored less than 17 points in four of the last five meetings in this series).

Yes, Michigan needs to do a better job protecting the ball in front of the “white-out” crowd at Happy Valley (only one team in the land owns more fumbles-lost than the Wolves) but the defense is beginning to assert itself, having held its last two foes to season low yards.

As for relevant ATS history, Penn State head coach James Franklin is just 5-8 ATS versus foes coming off a win-no-cover (3-8 ATS versus .800 or greater foes). PSU is also just 2-5 ATS after Iowa and has been out-yarded in 3 of its five games against FBS foes this season.

The Wolverines crushed these guys 42-7 in 2018 to up their recent series record to 4-1 SUATS, and can play with confidence here according to THE CLINCHER:

Michigan is 11-3 ATS as a dog off a SU favorite win-no-cover when
facing greater than .800 opponents, including 5-0 ATS as a dog of more than 4 points.

BAYLOR over Oklahoma State by 11

How about Baylor’s Matt Rhule for FBS Coach of the Year? In just his
third season in Waco, Rhule has completely transformed a program in shambles into this year’s undefeated and 18th-ranked squad, a group that simply refuses to lose.

Rhule is college football’s version of the Vikings’ Mike Zimmer, an ATM machine: 49-29 ATS all games, including 38-18 ATS in conference games, 21-7 ATS away, and 13-1 ATS away against opponents coming off a loss.

With two of its most recent three wins coming by scant margins of just 3 and 2 points, we’re starting to wonder if Baylor’s Cinderella run in 2019 will ever strike midnight.

The oddsmakers think so, installing the Cowboys as 3-point chalk and the line has held steady. To which we say, not so fast, my friend.

Not with Oklahoma State sitting at 2-6 ATS as a favorite versus an undefeated opponent, plus head coach Mike Gundy is a money-burning 5-11-1 ATS as a favorite of 13 or fewer points with conference revenge, including 3-8 ATS at home.

OSU has improved its numbers on both sides of the ball since last year but the Pokes are on a not-so-impressive 11-8 SU run since the start of the 2018 season. Baylor has won and covered in three of the last four meetings and
takes the field buoyed by a perfect 4-0 ATS mark before a bye week.

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