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The Conscience of Thoroughbred Racing

UPSETS: TAKE TEMPLE, TEXAS

TEMPLE over Memphis by 6

With Central Florida having two losses already this season and one
in AAC action, other teams like Memphis and Temple have a chance
to carry the conference torch in 2019. The Tigers are 5-0 SU and
4-0 ATS versus FBS foes. Memphis is scoring at their usual rate of
nearly 40 PPG, but the big difference is on the defensive side of the
ball, with the Tigers permitting only 17.2 PPG against teams scoring
27.1 PPG. Here is where it gets weird: the Tigers are tied for last in
red zone defense, as opposing teams have scored points each time
from the 20-yard line on in. If Temple can engineer another home
upset, they can put the Buffalo loss in the rear view mirror. The Owls
are 5-0 ITS this season, 9-3 ATS after a weekday contest and 13-2
ATS in Game 6 after a spread setback. Did we mention that Temple
has covered four straight over Memphis? Or that the visitors are a
bonafide 5-0 Fat Cat favorite from last week’s SMART BOX? Now
we did. The Tigers are a meowing 0-5 ATS away versus .700 or better
AAC competition and 9-21 ATS off a double-digit road win. And
then there is THE CLINCHER: Temple is 7-0 ATS as a home dog
of 12 or fewer points and first-year head coach Rod Carey has
this team focused with their eyes on the prize

TEXAS over Oklahoma by 1

The Red River Rivalry will again have huge implications not only in
the Big 12 but nationally. For a quarterback that wasn’t known for
throwing the pigskin at Alabama, Oklahoma’s Jalen Hurts is doing
pretty well for himself directing the best offense at this level of
football. The Sooners are more than 70 yards per game ahead of No.
2 LSU, owning the 5th-best passing attack and No. 2 scoring offense
at 53.4 PPG. In spite of all the joy surrounding Oklahoma, football
bettors have elements to worry about. Only one team has committed
more penalties than the Sooners and favorites in the RRR are 9-18
ATS and OU is 2-9 ATS when allowing 18 or more PPG on the season.
Texas has covered six of seven against their bitter rivals and is playing
with revenge from last year’s Big 12 title tilt, and has the right coach
to pull this off. The Longhorns secondary is far from healthy and
ranked 126th defending the pass and has to accomplish two goals
to beat the spread and maybe engineer the upset. Texas is No. 2
in the nation in third-down conversion percentage and will need
to keep moving the chains and dominate time of possession while
matching scores. The Horns are going to give up yards, but must win
the turnover battle by +2 to set them up properly. They’ve won 3 of
the last seven games in this series (lost 39-27 last season), and bring a
lofty 17-11-1 ATS record away from Austin as a dog when looking to
avenge a conference setback. They also partake in THE CLINCHER:
Texas head coach Tom Herman is 10-6 SU and 13-3 ATS in his
career as a dog, including 5-1 SUATS when his team owns a
.800 or greater record, and 5-0 ATS as a double-digit dog

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