Friday’s 6th race at Tampa scheduled for the turf is vexing for several reasons. First, it’s a full-field wide open event for younger, talented horses going two turns. In addition, horses might be fighting the element, too, with showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. And, will the race say on turf?
While cases can be made for half the 10-horse field, we settled on two, they are both forward looking, one acts on both turf and dirt and the other is one-for-one on grass but has all the wet track pedigree one needs to succeed.
Danzing Dunhill (7-2) had been successful on turf but ran his career best on dirt in a recent blowout victory, earning a lifetime best Thoro-Graph figure, and he won well. Further, he’s properly spotted given the conditions.
George Weaver has given him lots of recovery time from that eye-opener, is 21% returning in this time frame and to date is enjoying a career year. Check out that dirt run on Tampa Bay Today Video, Gulfstream, MAR 11, RACE 3.
Despite getting bumped at the break, Gravitas (6-1) wired a turf field in his two-turn debut but of greater significance is the fact he did so for Jonathan Thomas whose second-time-out percentages far outweigh his debut winners.
With that in mind, a series of very sharp blowouts on the Tampa main track indicates that there likely is improvement forthcoming in start two, per usual. Daniel Centeno takes a return call and, as a son of Blame, he would relish wet footing.
Here are disparate suggestions. If the race remains on turf, exacta, box Danzing Dunhill and Gravitas but given the wide draw and contentiousness of the group, we need a minimum of 7-2 straight.
If the race is rescheduled to the main track, we’ll still box the exacta but would take Dancing Dunhill to win; 2-1 or more is fair.
