Chad Brown has an extraordinary record with first time starters on the Tampa turf. That face did not escape the linemaker as he made Brown newcomer Salimah (2-1) the early line favorite.
But this is no soft spot. Price shot Xcaret (12-1) earned a competitive Thoro-Graph figure for the level and attracts Antonio Gallardo; Two-thirds that quote would be good enough to take a flyer.
Change Plans (6-1) had a no chance trip in her turf debut at Gulfstream in which two fillies came back to win their subsequent starts from as many starters. Tom Proctor does good work in Oldsmar, especially with Castanon.
Cupids Dream (10-1) certainly offer value on the early line. She comes from Gerald Bennett’s barn, profitable first time going long and with his second-time starters.
But Dawn’s (4-1) last must be seen to be believed. She moved forward in her second lifetime start despite breaking slowly, was forced wide into the lane making her rally and finished well too late between horses.
Daniel Centeno and Arnaud Delacour are 28% successful from a huge sample and the spacing is perfect. Delacour has been in a funk but this filly could help him to break out.
Check the Tampa Bay Today Video on the HRI homepage: Tampa Bay Downs, DEC 4, Race 8.
Taking Dawn to win at 3-1 or greater, and key-boxing her first and second in multiples with the contenders above.
