HALLANDALE BEACH, FL, November 18, 2022 — As we await the return of racing in Northern Florida, we’ll soldier-on on this side of the Mississippi to various racing ports of call: Aqueduct, Fair Grounds, Churchill Downs and right here at Gulfstream Park:
Lots of top class racing over the upcoming holiday weekend but we have an interesting turf races for three-year-olds in Queens, a Grade 3 for fillies and mares in Louisville, a couple of overnight stakes from New Orleans and a pair of Florida-bred juvenile jaunts at Gulfstream Park.
The weather handicappers are promising a fast track everywhere except at Fair Grounds. At least they’re not looking at four feet of lake-effect snow. Let’s start here at home:
GULFSTREAM PARK
JUVENILE FILLIES Race 7
The Skinny: Five of the seven entrants can win this and value seems assured whatever the bettors decide:
1-Oh Darlin (5-2) has been managed very carefully by Eddie Plesa Jr. She is pole sitting and regular rider Kevin Krigger is aloft.
Of note, check out his nose defeat on debut, Gulfstream Park, OCT 7, Race 4. She was probably best in the head-bobbing loss before she returned OCT 28 to graduate stylishly by 3 lengths.
But there are other worth noting as their Thoro-Graph figures are within a point of two of each other, meaningless advantages when youngsters, who develop virtually overnight, are involved.
3-La Panda (15-1) graduated showing excellent, much improved early speed breaking maiden despite a class rise going first-time long at Presque Isle, also a Tapeta surface. She is the unknown quantity.
5-Luck In The Dusk (6-1) was much the best winning her last by a narrow margin, considering that she raced four or five wide throughout her local Tapeta debut after a troubled break, running to her synth-kind Malibu Moon pedigree. It was an amazing effort.
6-Navy Goat (4-1) was a pricey youngster who broke maiden going a demanding mile at Kentucky Downs. While her sire has not produced a synth winner to date, Arnaud Delacour is an otherworldly 34% effective going turf to synth. Coming in fresh, Samy Camacho, at 24% for this barn, gets the call. Think class edge.
And, finally, 7-Stuck In Malibu (5-2), while still a maiden into this, ran a winning effort in her second route trip on the local All-Weather, beaten by a head. Today, she gets the services of Miguel Vasquez, having a career year.
MOST PROBABLE WINNER: Navy Goat
EARLY LINE VALUE: Luck in the Dusk
STRAIGHT WAGERS and EXOTICA: Exacta Key-Box 5 // 1.3.6.7. Superfecta Key 6 // 1.3.5.7. Straight Wagers Value dependent: Luck in the Dusk or Navy Goat. Small win saver regardless: La Panda at 12-1 or greater.
JUVENILE COLTS Race 10
The Skinny: Much easier, only four to seriously consider for us, from eight entered.
1-Dangerous Ride (6-1) was sharpened in strong run main-track 7 furlongs for return to maiden-breaking surface going two turns with a suitable pedigree. The pole and Edwin Gonzalez are plusses here. 3-Cheerful Charlie (2-1) has been staying close to strong paces and has been staying on willingly; switch to Morelos helps this one’s running style.
5-Tigre (6-1) was absolutely awful last time following a series of consistent efforts. There must be some explanation as Roger Laurin enters this one back on six days rest. Very tricky call but may be worth risk at early line odds or more. 8-Souper Blessing (7-2) hung in stretch battle and should have been second in main-track, 7-furlong open stakes debut now returns to maiden breaker surface he absolutely loved at PID. Good spacing and connections.
MOST PROBABLE WINNER: Souper Blessing
STRAIGHT WAGERS and EXOTICA: Exacta Box: 3-5-8. Trifecta Key 8 // 1.3.5. Souper Blessing to win at 3-1. Small saver win wager: Tigre at 6-1 or greater.
AQUEDUCT RACE TRACK
GIO PONTI STAKES Race 7
The Skinny: Three-year-olds on the grass, even this late in the year, always interest us as horses, seeking to find their level, improve in leaps and bounds–or not.
Nine have been entered into the body plus one Main Track Only. Four that interest us are 1-Churchtown (6-1), 2-Grand Sonata (3-1), 6-Dakota Gold (9-2) and 8-Steady On (2-1)
On current form and undefeated on this course, understand why Steady On is the early line favorite. But the other Todd, Grand Sonata, has been keeping graded company. His figures are not as flashy as his mate, but he does grind his way forward most every time. Both must be respected, of course.
But the other two are more intriguing based on both ability and price. Churchill ships down for Roger Attfield, who is almost always live here. This one just got beat going a mile at Woodbine. He stalked throughout, tracked the speed from the 2-path and stuck around all the way to the last jump. The pace intensified but he was not deterred. With good spacing into this, useful to recall that Attfield bombers ran very well at Keeneland two weeks ago.
However, we’ve been a fan of New York-bred Dakota Gold and his big late run which must be timed perfectly. He has been compromised by a slow pace in four recent starts and there seems to be enough gas signed on to at least insure an honest pace. We’re hopeful, anyway.
MOST PROBABLE WINNER: Dakota Gold
EARLY LINE VALUE: Churchtown
STRAIGHT WAGERS and EXOTICA: Exacta Box: 1.2.6. Exacta Box 1.6.8. Trifecta Key: 6 // 1.2.8. Value Play Dakota Gold at 7-2 or greater and smaller win saver–Churchtown to win at 6-1 or greater.
CHURCHILL DOWNS
G3 CHILUKKI STAKES Race 10
The Skinny: 1-Coach (9-5), given company lines and performances, is a deserving favorite and will be a tough out. She was a game second on her preferred wet track coming off a layup and should benefit. She gets winning partner Santana back. 6-She Can’t Sing (5-2) has won here and goes for a barn having a profitable 2022 and a worthy 24% going turf to dirt, also a profitable scenario. She comes is fresh, nicely drawn outside, tactical, and worked a bullet half-mile at her Hawthorne base.
After that comes 2-Mariah’s Princess (3-1), second off a long layup for the Bauer barn, having a great season, she’s won here and is 2-for-3 beneath Martin Garcia, and track loving 6-Liberty M D dropping and stretching out over a surface where she’s (5) 4-1-0 lifetime.
DESERVING FAVORITE: Coach
EARLY LINE VALUE: Liberty M D
STRAIGHT WAGERS and EXOTICA: Exacta Box: 1.2.6. Exacta Box: 1.6.7. Trifecta Key: 1 // 2.6.7. Betting She Can’t Sing to win at 5-2 or greater
FAIR GROUNDS
SCOUNT’S SCOUNDREL STAKES Race 7
The Skinny: This race has it all, fast figures, course horses, fast workers, and uncertain track conditions. The consistently fastest horse has an unfavorable wide draw while his mate gets the pole and “the Biscuit.” So which Bret Calhoun will it be, 10-Who Took the Money (7-5) or 1-Highland Creek (9-2).
I have an alternative to both: 9-More Memories (8-1). A 3-year-old show improved energy distribution in recent starts and owns competitive Thoro-Graph figures. He too has a wide draw but is a late run type; leave the gate, drop in, make the move at the appropriate time. New trainer Chris Richard is 18% profitable with shippers and Marcelino Pedroza fits this type of runner. The price rates to be square.
DESERVING FAVORITE: Who Took the Money
EARLY LINE VALUE: More Memories
STRAIGHT WAGERS and EXOTICA: Exacta Key-Box 9 // 1. 2 [Behemah Star, 6-1]. 3 [Cosmic Train, 20-1]. 10. Trifecta Wheel: 1.2.3.10 // 1.2.3.10 //9. Taking More Memories to win at 7-1 or greater.
MONTE MAN STAKES Race 8
The Skinny: Also for Louisiana-breds, this one boasts a fresh speedster, 2-Bertie’s Galaxy (5-2), that has much going for him. Fresh, he returns for a top layoff outfit, Ron Faucheux, 24% effective with 90-day+ layups. Owning excellent early speed and comfortable over any type of going, he’s won half his 10 starts in NOLA, is (9) 3-4-0 at the trip, and is an overall win machine with a lifetime slate of (25) 11-8-1. Regular partner Jareth Loveberry is in the boot. we’ll look to optimize our play with distance and course loving 4-Scarlettsblackjack (6-1), Horse for Course 5-Creole Charlie (8-1), fast-working 8-Kingofbrokenheats (8-1) and key-race exiting, course and trip-loving 10-United Report (6-1).
STRAIGHT WAGERS and EXOTICA: Exacta Key-Box: 2 //4-5-8-10. Superfecta Key: 2 // 4.5.8.10. Daily Double Back-Wheel 1.9 with 2. If not alive in double, Bertie’s Galaxy to win at 2-1 or greater.
Per usual: All suggested exotic wagers are at minimums available; straight wagers in $2 units or more
Next up, Fair Grounds — this live column will be updated throughout the weekend
