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The Conscience of Thoroughbred Racing


By Lisa DeMichael, the, Hallandale Beach, FL, March 31, 2023 If Dosage Theory is applied to Florida Derby winners, a race that has produced 15 Kentucky Derby repeaters since 1956, six in this Millennium, the 2023 renewal of Gulfstream Park’s signature event will reduce a 12-horse field to one by Saturday’s end.

His name is Forte.

The following is a handicapping guide to the 2023 Florida Derby from a breeding perspective, based on Dosage Theory analysis:


DP = 3-16-5-0-0 (24) DI = 8.60   CD = 0.92

Mare Profile = 8-4-3-6-6   Speed = 12   Stamina = 12   Index = 1.10   Triads = 15-13-15

The son of Arrogate has over 8.5 times the speed over stamina from his chefs. When adding in his prominent non-chefs, the speed jumps up to 11 times the speed over stamina. This horse belongs on the speedy bias of Gulfstream Park, especially if he can break well and hit that front tier. Lacks the full 9f distance, optimum at 8.8f, and will need to rely on his sire Arrogate for the additional endurance to grab a small piece of the tote board.


DP = 4-4-8-0-0 (16) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.75

Mare Profile = 8-2-3-6-7   Speed = 10   Stamina = 13   Index = 0.91   Triads = 13-11-16

The distance of the Florida Derby is no problem. He has a 9.9f optimum. He is a more evenly balanced horse and does not gravitate to one side or the other on the speed/stamina spectrum.  Energy distribution highly dependent on pace.


DP = 4-3-11-2-0 (20) DI = 1.67   CD = 0.45

Mare Profile = 10-3-2-8-8   Speed = 13   Stamina = 16   Index = 0.96   Triads = 15-13-18

Optimum distance at 10.25f. Early speed comes directly from the mares which waters down the chefs stamina. Needs a moderate pace to keep his energy distribution proper. Rather than his chefs and mares combining in a normal manner, they are at odds with each other. This is why he has different running styles. He needs to gravitate to his mares at Gulfstream.

Post 4:  MAGE

DP = 2-4-8-0-0 (14) DI = 2.50   CD = 0.57

Mare Profile = 7-8-2-9-8   Speed = 15   Stamina = 17   Index = 0.89   Triads = 17-19-19

Good Magic son with 10.25f optimum. Displayed very nice speed going short on the Gulfstream bias in spite of the lean to stamina. Needs an unimpeded clean ride and should easily glide on this track again.  

Very nice set of balanced configurations.

Post 5:  MR. PEEKS

DP = 1-3-4-0-0 (8) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.63 

Mare Profile = 10-1-5-6-7   Speed = 11   Stamina = 13   Index = 1.04   Triads = 16-12-18

Going for a maiden win in the Florida Derby, the class is non-existent, and the energy distribution is off with a fast pace. When in his prominent non-chefs, he jumps up to a 4.00 – which is 4x the speed over stamina. The mares dump even more early speed. His style is perfectly in sync with his numbers and this will cause him to disintegrate late.


DP = 2-1-3-0-0 (6) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.83

Mare Profile = 9-4-2-9-7   Speed = 13   Stamina = 16   Index = 0.96   Triads = 15-15-18

Distance capability is 9.5f when combined. Only two 6f maiden performances at Oaklawn, but commendable energy. Gulfstream workouts a bit faster than Oaklawn, could be bias preference, could be growth. Big jump in class on a completely different bias but does have the muscle to go the distance.


DP = 1-4-7-0-0 (12) DI = 2.43   CD = 0.50 

Mare Profile = 5-4-5-7-8   Speed = 9   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.68   Triads = 14-16-20

Gun Runner colt who appears not to run to his breeding. He is very torn and split with his breeding. Mares are all stamina and highly dominant, rear running style follows suit. Broke his 8f maiden on the lead, the only time he ever ran out front. He’s been fractious in the gate, bumped the gate, broke awkward, and bobbled the start.  

Post 8:  MR. RIPPLE

DP = 2-4-8-0-0 (14) DI = 2.50   CD = 0.57

Mare Profile = 13-3-2-6-8   Speed = 16   Stamina = 14   Index = 1.29   Triads = 18-11-16

Maiden and OC runner with more inbred speed than his configurations suggest. He jumps to a 3.50 and mares are very dominant in speed. Just shy of the 9f.


DP = 1-2-3-0-0 (6) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.67

Mare Profile = 6-7-4-7-4   Speed = 13   Stamina = 11   Index = 1.21   Triads = 17-18-15

These are very a-typical configurations for an Into Mischief son. Lower end of the speed spectrum on top, mares descend to the stamina end. When his prominent non-chefs are added, he jumps up on the speed side a great deal. 9f is very tight, especially with a fast pace.

Post 10:  FORT BRAGG

DP = 4-9-10-1-0 (24) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.67

Mare Profile = 9-5-2-9-6   Speed = 14   Stamina = 15   Index = 1.09   Triads = 16-16-17 (1st gen Tapit)

First generation Tapit colt who will not have a speedster out front playing rabbit for him. This horse was being trained to run against his breeding. A 3.00 Tapit boy would lean more to the stamina side than to the quick early speed side. Distance is in his back pocket, all depends a great deal on the “new” training methods catering to the status-quo, more in line with the breeding traits of the horse. 

Post 11: FORTE

DP = 4-4-5-1-0 (14) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.79

Mare Profile = 11-2-5-1-11   Speed = 13   Stamina = 12   Index = 1.04   Triads = 18-8-17

This horse is very talented and has dominated this crop from 5f to 8.5f to date. He has tackled both types of biases successfully. He is built for this 9f race on the Gulfstream surface, as well as perfectly configured for the Preakness, the Pennsylvania Derby and the Pegasus. He is built very similarly to horses like Zandon, Enticed and McKinzie. Optimum distance lies within those 3 races. 


DP = 1-4-5-0-0 (10) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.60

Mare Profile = 3-7-3-9-7   Speed = 10   Stamina = 16   Index = 0.62   Triads = 13-19-19

This guy is built for the Belmont Stakes. What stands out a great deal is his performance in the Remsen. He was able to compete on the sloppy surface with a 100 Beyer with pace figures 96/105/90–up close with the pace. Quite the opposite of how he is configured which means, the displayed speed is there. This is very similar to Country House’s set-up, along with proficiency on a sloppy surface. Up close with the pace, and he has the endurance to hold his speed easily. Kept in the rear and he has the speed to pass the under-class retreaters.

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