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The Conscience of Thoroughbred Racing


By Marc Lawrence  — Upsets for the Weekend of DEC 19-20 —

COLLEGE: LSU over Ole Miss by 6

 It’s hard to recall a defending nation champion college football team suffering through the nightmare season that head coach Ed Orgeron and his Tigers have been forced to endure in 2020. The whole thing started bad when LSU was routed at Death Valley by Missy State in the season-opener – made even worse by the fact that MSU turned out to be an imposter that would probably lose to a half-dozen high school teams in the Magnolia State – but never did Orgeron allow his squad to quit. In fact, the Tigers did not lose back-to-back games until running the Texas A&M Alabama gauntlet recently, and they still had enough left to go to the Swamp and destroy Florida’s shot a reaching the Playoff, winning 37-34. This afternoon we fi nd the 4-4 Rebels facing the 4-5 Tigers in a game laden with bowl implications. To paraphrase William Shakespeare, let us count the ways we like LSU in its last home game of the year. For openers, Ole Miss sports a leaky 531 YPG defense that ranks No. 127 in the nation. Then there’s Mississippi’s 4-13 ATS failure versus sub .500 SEC foes, including 0-6 ATS between the sixes (+6 to -6), and a 1-6 ATS record when playing with rest. Yikes. Compare that to the fact that the host team is on a 6-1 ATS run in this event, and that the Tigers are on a 6-0 SUATS ride after beating Florida. From the all-knowing database: Defending national champions are 31-7-1 SU in LHGs since 1985, including 19-2 versus sub .700 opponents. In addition, coach Orgeron is 30-12 ATS versus a foe with a better record, including 11-0 ATS in games after his team surrendered 34 or more points. See where we’re going? With that, we hand it off to THE CLINCHER: Defending National champions are 12-2 SU and 9-3 ATS at home with a .500 or fewer win percentage when facing foes with at least one loss on the season, including 6-0 SUATS from Game Four on out.

NFL: New England over MIAMI by 3

If you like history, then this game may be your cup of tea. Miami has been favored ONE TIME in its last 34 games against New England, losing 11 of them on the scoreboard. The last time the Pats missed the playoffs was in 2008, when Tom Bray played only one game due to a knee injury. They are currently the No. 10 seed in the AFC, while the Dolphins hold down the 7th and final playoff slot. Belichick checks in just 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS in his career during December in games at Miami. On the other side of the coin, the Hoodie is 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS with the Pats in games after scoring 7 or fewer points, including 5-0 ATS away, as well as 5-0 ATS as a dog. In addition, Belichick is 18-6 SUATS in games with New England when coming off a loss of 14 or more points, including 7-0 ATS as a dog. Miami led Kansas City, 10-0, in the 2Q before reverting back to their bungling ways last week. With the Fish are 1-5 SUATS of late in Game Fourteen of the season, look for history to repeat itself here today – despite Grumpy’s troubles in South Beach during the holiday season.

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2 Responses

  1. Au contraire Chartster. Stats are open to interpretation and I’d rather have too much than not enough.

    Bettors should concentrate on those aspects of the game that they know best and disregard what is, for them, noise.

    Go Grumpy!

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