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The Conscience of Thoroughbred Racing

TAMPA BAY TODAY – JAN 17

Friday’s 5th race in Oldsmar features some classy maidens from some top outfits including a Chad Brown trainee, Ava Malone (8-5), sporting two good turf efforts up north.

The presence of Antonio Gallardo for a barn that carries a (4) 3-1-0 slate into this assures she will be odds-on ante post.

We are likely to use her defensively but the filly who interests us most is Pallas Athene (3-1) in her third start with blinkers.

This coincides with her first-ever run at Tampa Bay–a too late but very strong late finish that resulted in a photo. She continued on with an energetic gallop out.

Back at the same trip for her New York connections, John Terranova, she has worked four times since that debut run.

The video can be acquired by clicking on the Tampa Bay Video link on the HRI homepage which will take you to their replay center. The event of interest is from DEC 6, RACE 6.

The clincher for us is the race over the ground, the Pablo Morales re-ride– 26% profitable with late-rally types–for a barn that’s also profitable for a career with turf starters and maidens, according to BRIS past performances.

Given the level of competition and race dynamics, 5-2 would be the lowest acceptable price for a straight win wager.

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4 Responses

  1. MrPricci,as a handicapper you must have had ways to check,inspect and keep tabs on many types of races,tracks,distances,trainers` ways and habits and so forth from different race tracks and my question to you,in general terms,of course, is haven`t there been ,and maybe still are, differences between tracks and do your deductions change from one track to the other besides track conditions/distances ? For example i used to bet sprints paying attention to final times, track variant plus a 20 % Beyer added to it,,in all tracks .Now after i peek at the PPs eliminating long shots, i`m basically paying attention to the [exacta,DD,PK 3,,] board,no matter the distance,,BUT the winning % of one track keeps on being better than the others,well, because the board tells me more and is more ‘reliable’ and efficient than the others. So,basically i` ve become a ‘one track mind’,specialized ,if you will, and it takes lots of patience trying to avoid other distractions,tracks between races. It does not mean that i only bet the same gimmick since i follow a couple of other profitable trends but in these times of only a few racing days and races it can be monotonous at times forcing me to ‘peek’ at other “out of towners” with a negative effect and result . Discipline,discipline.. not a strong suit but it gets better,more manageable with time and age as we await for the right spot and move between races.

  2. JG,

    The Laurel Park and Tampa Bay analyses are promotional agreements between the tracks and HRI. The races chosen are what the client prefers to promote to their bettors, in terms of what their mission is.

    Personally, I enjoy maiden, allowances and stakes races–the game at its highest levels–and virtually any race on turf; not all but most so as to best utilize my trip handicapping skills.

  3. Thanks x the input. At least we agree that the claiming game is less exact and more unpredictable than other races.,or as Harris would say, ‘ Only the horse`s vet knows’ . We remember your ‘trip notes/hints’ from long time ago, like [wasted] ‘middle moves’ for the next race while reading the once venerable Newsday. Maiden Special Weights must have had and still has a high % of Winning fav$ ,wrong/right ? Omerta` !!

  4. With my teeth getting longer by the day, I just have time and energy enough for the game at its highest levels. I need interesting sport to go with my betting dollars…

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