Hallandale Beach, April 28, 2026 — Much of the chatter around Derby-152 is about “The Big Three.” And indeed, Renegade, Further Ado and Commandment are the most accomplished 3-year-olds exiting the Triple Crown prep season.
Even the Churchill Downs mutuel department has taken note.
In its first year of Matchup Betting, handicappers are asked to choose an entry of The Big Three, or the balance of the 20-horse field. Interesting proposition.
Hers’s some straight talk: This race is wide open, lacking a clear pacesetter. Trainers have noticed and, to that end, bullet workouts have filled last weekend’s work-tabs.
In straight betting, because half the field looks live, two approaches are In conflict. With early line favorite Renegade having drawn the compromising rail, it seems the 4-1 early quote looks safe ante post, perhaps higher when the race begins at 5:57 p.m.
The trend in recent years is that price shots get more respect at the wickets than back in the day. Apparently, the more things change, the more things change.
In our view, Further Ado will be favored at post time given his tour de force Blus Grass Stakes. Bumped between rivals at the start, he was carried four wide into the first turn and raced three wide outside rivals the rest of the way.
When Irad Ortiz was ready, he took the lead 3-4 wide into the stretch with his crop down. When he asked his colt in earnest leaving headstretch, Further Ado surged strongly to the lead under encouragement, swapping over to his left lead inside the final sixteenth.
For the second time in his career, the colt earned a negative figure, (minus- 2) on the Thoro-Graph scale, the field’s best figure. He bounced off his minus-11 previously.
However, he breezed very strongly over the weekend, suggesting he has not bottomed out. But there is far less stress in a work compared to an actual race. Another tough call here.
The thing about Commandment is that he just wats to beat you. The Puma got first run in the Florida Derby and took a commanding lead in the lane. But Commandment finished relentlessly down the middle of the track. He’ll seek his fifth straight win on Saturday.
So will it be one of The Big Three or one among the other 17? We have some ideas:
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A-LIST CONTENDERS
EMERFGING MARKET (15-1) has historical inexperience to overcome but times have changed. Could not have been more impressive visually in both two-turn runs and owns great classic pedigree. Quick acceleration and thrives on competition. Freshness, style, post, Prat all positive angles.
RENEGADE (4-1) draws dreaded rail but Irad Ortiz is skilled enough to overcome it, assuming he jumps well from the barrier Has developed an explosive late turn of foot, is on a positive forward pattern, showing enviable incremental improvement. Another forward move wins this.
CHIEF WALLABEE (8-1) also lightly raced with three starts, was courageous third from between horses in FLA Derby stretch, racing greenly. On went blinkers for Bill Mott, in which and he worked 7 furlongs in 1:25 at CD—old school Charlie Whittingham Derby training tack. Looks explosive and will need to be.
FURTHER ADO (6-1) To bounce or not to bounce is the $5M question this colt must answer. The fastest horse in the race ran a negative 1 at 2, and a negative 2 when burying his Blue Grass rivals last out. He bounced the first time–and this one is faster. Both runs were at Keeneland. The positive is that he worked like a beast over this track last weekend. Wide draw, Johnny, and Cox; are other positives. Tough read.
If and how you use these four, listed in graded order, is your call. Key for me? Emerging Market, at no lower than 8=1 straight.
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SUPEREXOTICS
COMMANDMENT is a must-use for obvious reasons. Beyond the two Cox runners, price shots for Derby include
Fast-working, ground-savingINTREPITO (50-1), Santa Anita blowout winner SO HAPPY (15-1),fast-working Horse for Course INCREDIBOLT (20-1) and jaw-dropping worker POTENTE (20-1).
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KENTUCKY OAKS
BELLA BALLERINA (12-1) has been supercontinent on the track with three wins and a placing in four starts and on figure power. Won G2 Golden Rod here following a maiden-breaking debut. Too fresh when second in G2 FG Oaks last out, has had four solid drills including impressive breeze and a fine half-mile miniatous move at CD; ready to explode.
EXPLORA (6-1) was a courageous winner of the G3 Honeybee despite ststjun the pace2-3 wide all the way, separated herself entering and leaving headstretch, gamely turned back a stretch challenge through stretch and galloped out strongly. Will benefit from recent brief freshening, is 2-for-2 when fresh and has worked very well for this. Rail plus Prat auger well.
ALWAYS A RUNNER (12-1) is undefeated in two starts, both rounding two turns, showed strong turn of foot with sustained rail rail rally on the final turn, and jumped forward to win G3 Gazelle following Tampa maiden breaker, racing wide into lane. Despite hard-fought win, won with something in reserve, flicking her ears crossing the finish post. Huge upside.
PROM QUEEN (8-1) has never taken a backward step, qualified for this taking G2 Gulfstream Oaks despite racing 4-wide into first turn and continuing 3-4 wide across the trck while stalking rivals, taking command on her own at final turn and drew off late under confident handling from regular partner Javier Castellano. Added sixteenth suited by pedigree.
30 Responses
Hey John! Can’t wait to hear your other ideas as I have four open on this Wednesday before the race. My lean is towards Commandment right now, but not tossing Renegade just yet. Further Ado is the Big-3 member I’ll be against.
Also will seriously consider The Puma and Chief Wallabee and could use Incredibolt if his price gets interesting. Hope all is well.
Stephen, perfectly understand your anti-Further Ado stance. OF others mentioned, prefer Chief Wallabee.
I’m not making excuses, just this observation: Between Derby and Oaks, this is the most challenging handicapping exercise in memory.
Happy Derby Day to you and all the HRI Faithful!
Hey John! As I look at the pp’s on this Wednesday before the big race, I have left 4 open and am leaning towards Commandment right now though I won’t disparage Renegade (despite the tricky post position draw). The other two I’ll consider are The Puma and Chief Wallabee and I might look closer at Incredibolt if the price warrants. I can’t wait to hear your other ideas coming soon. Hope all is well.
I think Incredibolt is among the best price shots; exotics player.
If anyone else but Irad or Flavien was on Renegade from the rail, I think I’d probably toss. I still think it will be a tall task, but I believe this is Irad’s 3rd rail draw in the Derby over the past 5-6 years, so that gives me a sliver of hope that the horse isn’t just a hopeless shot here.
The thing that concerns me with the closers is that I’m not sure how much pace is really signed up here. There is a definite scenario where its another Johnny V front pack masterpiece on Further Ado – who I 100% agree will certainly be favored, and rightly so.
I’ll be giving my annual losing donation on Golden Tempo (who has the very same pace concern), but at least it should be a big enough price to hope that in a 20 horse field, a couple of unexpected horses are keyed up and show speed.
Based on speedy works at CD and running style and post draws, think there’s sufficient pace for closers to be in this at the end.
This race is a big ask for more than half the field, including Golden Tempo–and I’m a fan. But you’ve got to draw the line somewhere.
Of the major contenders, I believe Johnny will work out the best trip given the dynamics. I always look toward Flavien and Irad, as most handicappers do. Given the post, Irad would be my first choice.
Great call Doc!
After much analysis and flat out work I am concentrating on Chief Wallabee and Incredibolt.
Much more work to be done including exotics and Johns additions.
jack, very interesting thinking.
I believe you’re on the right track, with The Chief being an astute win player. Good job!
Love the blend of new school-old school collaboration.
It’s a wonderful experience doing the necessary work for the privilege of making a well thought out wager with a value component.
God luck to all of the HRI faithful!!!
Hey Jack, hope you found value in Golden Tempo, sadly 3rd and 4th only for, me mostly 4th. Great ride, great fineish
John I used him in the exactas/trifectas no connection with my KH Chief Wallabee.
All in all a great day of racing to showcase to the world.
Once again thanks John for your hard work analysis
Jack, I appreciate your kindnesses …
Derby,just like NASCAR racing , Indianapolis 500 and Daytona , its main interesting races are early in their schedule. Go figure..
Picks by the # s : 18-15-6,plus 1-11-8-12. WPS puzzler:Incredibolt: 11. Nonno s system: 6 and 1 on top for exactas. Two triples yesterday,both beating the $ favs. Never been inside this majestic,important track for this sport but it sure looks good on the big screen,especially when compared to the other puny old, daytime eastern tracks.Keep the Standard up,,for the sake of future horseracing !Congrats to the organizations in charge!!
Loved your sentiments JG.
I covered 13 Derbies live but have not been there since the renovations. I need to go back and see it live.
Take 2. Kentucky Derby pics by the # s : 18-15-6,then 1-11-8-12. Nonno s system:6-1 WPS, plus my Puzzler horse, Incredibolt,11, to WPS and boxed in with the other Six horses. Good day yesterday beating two $ favs for the triples. Staying in the lane that is comfy. ….PS: Congrats to whomever is running Churchill Downs! IT looks majestic on the big screen esp. when compared to the other Eastern daytime tracks.Hoping that the futuristic Belmont,with all its whistles and bells will be comparable to it,at least with its track conditions and programs and not just a place to make several kinds of bets and attractions for the sake of the vast gambling options.,habits and addictions. Let it Ride!!!
JG, comparisons likely to be an apples and oranges thing. Belmont renderings have a futuristic theme to my eye. Worked there daily for decades but can’t wait to see its reincarnation,
Konnichiwa,Banzai !!! It happened again, in front of millions of followers of the Biggest day in American horse racing as a 30-1 morning line ( Japanese) horse gets bet down from 12-1 to 5-1 as the race goes on and wins,Easily, as the mouthpieces only mention that huge $$ change in such a big betting day for hust a couple of seconds and then go on to something else! Do you realize how Much $$$$ Had to be Bet right before post time?
That is like trying to follow the Cards in a 3 Card Monte game on a busy ,smoky big urban city sidewalk..!!!! Omerta- ” Don’t Anybody Say Nuthin !” ” They All Do It” Quoting the late Russ Harris,” Only the horse Vet knows how it will run..” What a hit on such a heavy betting day! Congrats, I think,,, It happened on today’s 10;the race,TO Elvis, .. I’m all shook up…even if I did not get the race..
‘ !
An incredible amount of money to rock he board on Derby Day — but tracks won’t co anything to threaten their golden goose. The regular rank and file? Too bad!
Have to give Mike Joyce of FD TV credit for taking the stewards to task for not declaring Baeza. When the race started I said to friends who were watching that horse might have been in the hands of an assistant starter.
After seen the head-on replay of the start, I was sure of it.
Did it cost me personally? Yes, a, winning superfecta. But what of the 10s of thousands on track and the 20 million viewers. It was an opportunity to show all fans that tracks will do their best to ensure a fair start for all competitors
Watched the KD 2026 about ten times and it still amazes me! Congrats to the Saratoga area horse racing Devoux family.One thing before I like Ocelli in the Preakness: Why name a Male horse,colt with a Female name ? Robusta reminds me of that Johnny Cash song : My name is Sue, how do you do ? Was Robusto ( strong,healthy) already taken? Until next time,,
Copy that …
Even after watching The K D race a few times ,i’m still amazed of how far behind ,last, the winner was and then making up ground ,eating them a la Pac Man of the 80 ‘s ! Congrats to the Saratoga ,NY, racing connections of the Devoux family tree, both in Harness and flat racing since i remember occasionally betting on Jimmy Devoux at Monticello. A final note for classy J.Ortiz winning both sides of the Daily Double with the Oaks race and with his hermano [brother] ,hitting a cold exacta. PS; Yes ,a healthy ,Gaffalione is back !
Well that worked out nicely. You could still build a house with my lifetime losing Derby tickets though.
Nice hit Dr.
Ditto …
Celebrate away! Very difficult race to cash. Kudos!
It’s one long game!!!
One day or two down and then a big up day. That’s how the game is played.
John you stated years ago to put yourself in a position to make a hit. I agree
Every once in a while, one has a good idea, Jack: I stole that phrase from the late, great Cary Fotias, who is always in my thoughts…
Enjoyed his comments in the six secrets of successful bettors.
Indeed, A truly original in a copycat game