The Horse Race Insider is a privately owned magazine. All copyrights reserved. “Bet with your head, not over it.”

The Conscience of Thoroughbred Racing


ARKANSAS over Lsu by 10 — LSU wins at home over Bama, shocking the college football world, so is it time to jump on the Bayou Bengal bandwagon? Not so fast, my friends. We feel that the Hogs are in a perfect spot to take advantage of a potential Tiger letdown following another LSU rush-the-field, take-down-the goal-posts celebration following the upset. First of all, Arky is 13-6 SUATS at home when coming off a SU favorite loss to a conference foe, including 3-0 SUATS as a dog of fewer than 8 points. Also, Sam Pittman is 19-9-1 ATS overall in his career with the Hogs, including 8-1 ATS as a dog of 16 or fewer points. In addition, you need to realize that LSU is a horrendous 2-7 ATS as a road favorite of less than 15 points while coming off back-to-back home games. Also, road favorites who upset Alabama the previous week are also just 2-7 ATS in the following game since 1980 when coming off three consecutive wins, including 0-5 ATS when they own a win percentage of greater than .750 on the season. Sure, Jayden Daniels has improved greatly, as has the Tiger defense, but Pittman’s crew will be up to the challenge. Finally, THE CLINCHER: Arkansas is 5-0 ATS when coming off a SU favorite loss in this series.

Louisville over CLEMSON by 7

Enough of this run of depressing programs, let’s focus on Clem… whoops! Dabo was declawed rather viciously in South Bend last week and now the Tigers are Tod Lubitch, aka “The Boy in the Plastic Bubble” played by John Travolta in 1976. You must remember that one, no? Clemson is 1-6-1 ATS off a SU favorite loss when facing a devilish .666 team or greater. Clemson has two QBs, and the old football algebra formula reads 2QB(3-D/0- 2)=0QB. That also adds up to no playoff appearance by the Tigers for the first time since the playoff was invented to: A. Crown a Champion and B. Shut up the internet trolls. The former worked; the latter has led us to a 12 teams playoffs future where Clemson will undoubtedly find itself nearly every season. Meanwhile in the shadows of Muhammad Ali Boulevard, Louisville has quietly stitched together a decent season after a terrible start and may be saving Scott Satterfi eld’s job. Satterfi eld is an Ali left jab solid 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS against teams coming off a spread loss of 19 or more points. UL is 4-0 SUATS in their last four. Sit back because here comes a half-ton of black ink: in the movie, Tod Lubitch got out of the bubble safely. Clemson is more like Donald from the “Seinfeld” classic “The Boy in the Bubble” episode. That was a “BURST BUBBLE”. Think of Marc’s AWESOME ANGLE ON PAGE 2 AS THE CLINCHER. Remember the answer to “Who invaded Spain in the 8th Century” is The Moops.

Tcu over TEXAS by 6

Despite three losses this season, the Longhorns jumped back into the AP Top 25 at No. 18 by virtue of their 34-27 win over Kansas State. After Texas led 31-10 at the half, the Wildcats came roaring back, but the comeback was halted when Keondre Coburn forced an Adrian Martinez fumble near midfield in the final minute. Our research did not reveal many good numbers for the Horns this week, however: Texas is 1-5 against the spread as Big 12 favorites of less than 7 points, 2-8 ATS versus single conference revenge (won 32- 27 last year in Fort Worth) and just 2-7 ATS at home versus an undefeated conference foe. Meanwhile, we certainly don’t want to get ahead of ourselves, but a perfect season is not unprecedented at TCU. The previous perfect run for the Horned Frogs came in the Mountain West Conference and was before the College Football Playoff. The Frogs are now at No. 4 in the nation, reaching 9-0 for the first time since 2010, a 13-0 season that ended with a Rose Bowl victory and No. 2 national ranking. To be honest, we’ve had these Frogs on our fade list often this season and have been eating crow trying to explain their uncanny ability to overcome second-half deficits during this campaign in four of their wins. However, the WellOiled Machine seals the deal today as it supplies THE CLINCHER: 9-0 or greater underdogs are 11-2-1 ATS during the regular season when not coming off an ATS win of more than 11 points, including 6-0 ATS as a dog of 4 or more points.


Seattle over Tampa Bay by 8

The Bucs are back! The Bucs are back! That’s the story the NFL is spinning in Germany this week for the final game in this year’s International Series slate. Sure, Tom Brady put together a 6-play, 60-yard drive in the final 35 seconds of last week’s game against the Rams to score with :09 seconds remaining in the contest to eke out a much-needed 16-13 win while putting a halt to a 3-game losing skid. With it the 4-5 Bucs are back on top ahead of their pursuers (9-17 combined) in the marshmallow-soft NFC South to assume the No. 4 seed in the current NFC playoff picture. On the flip side, the Seahawks have “earned” their No. 3 seed playoff status should the postseason begin this week. We come from the school that supports those who reward those who earn their keep as opposed to entitled elitists, and Seattle fi ts the script. Pete Carroll’s crew enters on a 4-0 SUATS win skein, winning three of the games outright as underdogs. And speaking of dogs, Seattle QB Geno Smith is 12-3 ATS in his last fifteen games when taking points in this league, including 7-0 ATS versus .444 or greater foes. On the other side of the fi eld, it should be noted that Brady is 3-0 SUATS in his NFL career in regular season games on neutral fi elds, but only 1-2 SU and 0-2- 1 ATS versus NFC West foes with the Bucs. In wrapping things up, it should also be noted that NFL teams with the better record are 19-8-1 SU and 16-12 ATS in Euro games. Back the team playing the better ball. Back the Seahawks. For further affirmation refer to THE CLINCHER: Seattle head coach Pete Carroll is 7-2 ATS as a dog with the Seahawks when riding a three-game-plus win skein, including 7-0 ATS when taking either 2 or 3 points.

Cleveland over MIAMI by 10

According to, the Browns own the highest graded offensive and defensive line players in the league with DE Myles Garrett and OG Joel Bitonio. And that’s not to mention the fact that Titans’ RB Derrick Henry called Browns’ RB Nick Chubb the best running back on the planet. Coming off their Bye week, the Browns look to be as healthy as they’ve been all season with star DB Denzel Ward and OT Wyatt Teller due back after resting lingering injuries. They are also as hungry as they’ve been this season as they now trail AFC North Division-leading Baltimore by 2.5 games and need to up their game in anticipation of the return of QB Deshaun Watson in three weeks. The Browns secondary better sharpen up, though, going against the top 1-2 WR duo in the league in Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle. Hill is on pace for a record 2,085 yards and could become the first ever receiver to surpass 2,000. Nonetheless, Miami arrives 3-8 ATS following consecutive NFC contests, while Cleveland is 7-1 ATS in this series, 4-0 ATS in first of back-to-back roadies, and 5-1 ATS following a division home game.

GREEN BAY over Dallas by 6

Let’s get this out of the way: The Packers have never made the playoffs after starting 3-6. And making matters worse, the 9 points scored against Detroit’s worst-ranked defense last week was the first time in three-plus seasons covering the previous 56 games in which the Lions have held a foe to fewer than 10 points in a game. And then came the news of the season ending loss of Pro Bowl OLB, Rashan Gary, arguably the best player on the Packers roster. So why on God’s Green Earth are we calling them out this week? For openers QB Aaron Rodgers has never lost 6 straight games (1-0 after five losses). In addition, Rodgers is 4-0 SUATS in his last four games as a dog against the Cowboys, as well as 4-2-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS as a home dog. FYI: this is the largest dog role for the Pack at Lambeau Field since Rodgers made his fi rst start in 2008. In addition, the Packers are 5-1 ATS versus foes coming off a Bye week, while Dallas QB Dak Prescott is 0-7 ATS in his career as a favorite of fewer than 6 points against NFC North opponents. Coupled with Dallas’ 1-6 ATS record in this series, and our INCREDIBLE STAT on page 3, we go to the source – our Well-Oiled Machine – for THE CLINCHER: Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers is 9-1 SUATS in his NFL career after the Packers scored fewer than 10 points the previous game, including 4-0 SUATS in non-division games.

Facebook Share
Twitter Share
LinkedIn Share

⚠ Before you comment

Our staff likes nothing better than to engage with the HRI Faithful and provide a forum for interaction on horseracing and sports. In that spirit, please be kind and reasonable; keep the language clean, and the tone civil. Comments from those who cannot comply will be deleted. Thank you.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *