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The Conscience of Thoroughbred Racing

A CROSS COUNTRY PICK 3 PARLAY?

Why not? Tracks make up betting propositions all the time. We’re making our own here, looking at the final three races at Gulfsteam Park before shipping out to Hot Springs for their Pick 3 finale.

Track conditions are expected to be fast and firm in Hallandale but rain showers and thunderstorms are considered “likely” at Oaklawn Park.

The Pick 3 finale at Gulfstream Park is wide open on paper. We could go 6x 2×4 and still not feel as if we’ve put the play in a lock box.

GULFSTREAM RACE 10: A field of 12 older horses going one mile on the turf and we left half the field open, including two Pletchers and two Gargans: Colonist (10-1), Kroy (6-1), First Premio (7-2), Dr. Shane (9-2), Penalty (12-1) and Halladay (6-1). Here’s the skinny on some that are intriguing.

Colonist, the longer Todd, has been fairly competitive in stakes, is a first-gelding–hasn’t run since NOV, 2018 but Pletcher is 30% efficient with layups longer than 90 days. Kroy makes first start for super trainer Danny Gargan (28%) and is 27% with 90-days layups.

First Premio was beaten less than a length in the Grade 1 Shadwell last fall but hasn’t run since; an obvious stepping stone but consistently fastest on the Thoro-Graph scale. Halladay had a tough time in the G3 Tampa Bay and has trained purposefully since. Like we said; wide open.

RACE 11: I’ll Fight Dempsey is 9-5, deservedly. Broke maiden on debut in fast time for Todd, another furlong won’t hurt his feelings and has three subsequent works of the bullet variety. Sonneman (5-2) was a good-figure maiden winner going a mile at Belmont Park and has been working by appointment for his return; Joel Rosario for Mark Hennig.

RACE 12: Claiming fillies going a mile on turf and we have four fillies open: Sweet Story (8-1), Avenida Manana (9-5), Trilby (9-2) and Paint the Corners. Our preference as keys would be the well placed Sweet Story and the streaking Avenida Manana, claimed last out while winning her third straight.

Budget 50-Cent P3 Play: 1,2,3,11 with 3 with 4,8 ($4)

OAKLAWN RACE 8: When last seen, Answer In (3-1) saved no ground in the G3 Southwest and settled for third. Runnerup Wells Bayou returned to win the G2 Louisiana Derby. Should have enough pedigree on bottom side for wet surface. Joe Talamo has done very well in Arkansas teaming up with super trainer Brad Cox.

PURPLE MARTIN STAKES: Hell of a matchup; sensational debut winner (3-1) Edgeway vs. G1-placed Frank’s Rockette (5-2) an impressive winner of her season’s debut in South Florida. Both earned sensational figures in their respective races, towering over the competition. Edgeway (John Sadler) might have a tad more early gas whereas ‘Frank’s’ has the experience edge and gives her rivals two pounds. Kimari makes her 3YO debut for Wesley Ward with Mike Smith. A multiple stakes winner on turf, where her future lies, broke her speed maiden going 4-1/2 furlongs on Keeneland dirt by 15.

RACE 10: We left five maidens open and can’t commit until the odds shake out: Aztec Empire (4-1), Wild Union (7-2), Copper King (6-1), Tiz the Journey (10-1) and On d’Oro (6-1). At the moment, at the potential odds, will lean Tiz the Journey.

Budget 50-Cent P3 Play: 5 with 4,8 with 4,5,7,11,12 ($5)

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2 Responses

  1. Pick threes are not that easy, right? Imagine the difficulty of pick sixes. Yet bettors by the thousands continue to chase them.
    Much has been written here at HRI about Tiz The Law. I found the Florida Derby rather boring, as it was over on the far turn. It s/be apparent that if the KD is run this year Tiz will be odds-on offering no value to the bettor but financially rewarding the owner of the winner along with the blue blood that finishes fifth (geez, even eighth). You and I will get to toss our ticket on the floor if our horse staggers home even fourth.

    Read that a recent poster wrote that winter racing at New York is for degenerates. Since I love claimers and winter racing, I’m a degenerate. At least odds-on entrants are a rarity.

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