Can’t shake the guilt here, going on record with a horse to win when the play really lies elsewhere. No excuse, just fact.
We’ve been awaiting today’s featured G2 Knickerbocker at Belmont Park in an attempt to defeat Catholic Boy (7-5) whose season has had more stops and starts than a downtown bus.
There’s the minor suspensory issue that trainer Jonathan Thomas has been dealing with, then there’s the fact that we’re dealing with a horse that last year was briefly in the running for Horse of the Year.
And that Thomas is under pressure to succeed in his return and is 29% effective with 90-days+ returnees.
Further, we know Javier Castellano will treat him right and is perfect over the Elmont lawn (2-for-2) and won his only start at the trip and that’s enough to consider he’s the most probable winner.
We were leaning heavily toward Lucullan (5-2) who just keeps marching forward, is 3-for-5 at Belmont, exits the G1 Woodbine Mile for the live Kiaran McLaughlin and it seems like Godolphin has won everything this month.
But in the end he’s not Catholic Boy, our choice to win the Knickerbocker and half of an exacta box of two favorites, never really a wise investment.
We’ll try to make some money with the obviously pointed Glorious Empire (9-2) and price shot Argonne (20-1) to complete a trifecta. (Keeping Chad Brown out of the money should provide some value, anyway).
YESTERDAY: Pillar Mountain was left with way too much to do behind a dawdling pace, finishing well but only third as Red Knight kept his promise to complete a boxed exacta. The sound you hear is a page turning…