In Saturday’s rich maiden allowances for two-year-olds going 1-1/16 miles on Tapeta Track, if Ella Frances (5-1) is anything close to her early line, it will mean one of two things:
Either the Christophe Clement juvenile is the overlay of the month or she’s dead on the board. Is it value, or is it ice?
We warn that it’s often very difficult to know which scenario applies. Look at the eighth race, assess a reasonable price point for betting, and have at it.
Her debut was a two-turner on turf at The Meadowlands in which she came from last of eight to finish third by nine to two other fillies, the place finisher returning to win next time out.
Better still, check out her last, which was a Tapeta debut at Presque Isle in which she improved after adding blinkers.
She still raced greenly but had better early speed and finished up nicely late to finish second, beaten 3/4s of a length.
Check out that effort: PRESQUE ISLE DOWNS, OCT 12, Race 4.
She moved forward on the Thoro-Graph scale, her figure improving incrementally it could be argued with some certainty. With Clement being profitable with his maiden juveniles, we’ll pay to find out.
Betting Ella Frances to win at half her early line odds, 5-2 or greater.