We’ve been trying to beat the favorite with logical contenders all week, they have all run very well but the most probable winner, on paper, confirmed their status on the racetrack.
Perhaps we will break through in the G3 Bold Ruler with Prince Lucky, a game second in the G2 Kelso last out now makes the perfect turn back to 7 furlongs, has a coveted also draw, tactical speed, conditioning and lots of early speed to set the table for Johnny.
The problem, of course, is one of those speeds in Kentucky Derby first and official Haskell winner Maximum Security, making his first start since that abysmally hot day at the Jersey Shore which delayed the big race about three hours. And that effort took its toll.
But he races well fresh, doesn’t strictly need the lead, and won his only start at the trip by 18 lengths. He is, of course, the deserving favorite, but there is the 98-day layup, the dreaded pole position and the fact he spots older rivals actual weight. He’s worth trying to beat.
Taking Prince Lucky to win at 5-2 or greater, an key-boxing exactas with the multiple Grade 1 winner and the Kelso tough-trip battler, True Timber (8-1).
YESTERDAY: Made You look was a willing second, completing an $11 exacta with the 3-2 favorite Bound for Nowhere, who proved to be much the best horse.
4 Responses
TTT
Don’t ever stop JP!!!!!
T, I don’t mean to get all hokey here, but your response touched me, that we can still reach racing fans and horseplayers.
I’ve got this love/hate relationship with the game; the hate part being the frustration of trying to deal with a fractured industry. Of course, I’m not alone in this.
But the love is too strong, the handicapping challenge never gets old, though it’s easy to go through “stale” periods but if God gives me health, I will never stop.
Didn’t want to turn this into a soapbox but your comment got to me on another level, thanks for the encouragement…
TTT
Had to check my algorithm program after what came up, but after not trusting it a few times when it came up with a bomber, I vowed never to doubt my numbers again, and will be playing 5-Knicks Go today across the board. One of the reasons I wrote my algorithm, is my analytical ability is waning as birthdays pass, and the computers just get faster and faster. Don’t get me wrong, nothing more satisfying than when my brain corroborates my figures. At the price they will give me on 5-Knicks Go, you can lose a few and still come out ahead. My comments yesterday regarding Bound for Nowhere, for those with ears to hear, were meant to tell people that at short odds, for most people, the best you can do is trade dollars in the long run. Some people just want to cash a ticket though, and others are interested in attempting to make money. To each his own.
No. Horse Race 8 M/L TTT
5 Knicks Go 30 4.29
1 Maximum Security 1 4.37
4 True Timber 8 7.28
7 Diamond King 8 9.41
2 Tale of Silence 15 10.73
8 Prince Lucky 3 11.34
6 Killybegs Captain 6 13.36
3 Wonderful Light 15 26.09
Talked about this yesterday with Cary reference; “live by the figures, die by the figures.” As for today, at 30-1 ML, there’s nothing to think about.
I went with a slower horse that I think will get best trip–and he has a big figure to run back to. Interesting that MAX has the class edge but is not appreciably faster than the competition lifetime; there are about four horses you can say that about.
And you’re right about betting profiles. Some have a low threshold for losing streaks waiting for that price shot while others have to feel like they’re in the game. “Saus-each” his own.