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The Conscience of Thoroughbred Racing

UPDATED: LAUREL, WOODBINE VALUE PLAYS ADDED TO AQUEDUCT AND CHURCHILL DOWNS

HALLANDALE BEACH, FL, November 12, 2021 — If you glance to the right on the HRI homepage, note that we’re already on record at Gulfstream Park, video et al.

We’ve done two more tracks and have two more to review. Here we go, attempting to outthink the public in New York and Kentucky. Tomorrow, it’s onto Maryland My Maryland and north to Toronto, Ontario.

AQUEDUCT RACE RACETRACK

Artie Schiller Stakes Race 9 [turf]

MOST PROBABLE WINNER: 6-Tell Your Daddy (3-1) some class relief, buffeted about in stretch last out, handles any ground

THE VALUE BET: 2-Olympic Runner (12-1) very game trier, overdue for some good racing luck, projected solid pace helps here

EXOTICS PLAYERS horses listed in order of preference: 1-Flavius (7-2), Chad and the rail. 4-March to the Arch (8-1) like uncoupled mate, needs clear sailing, 3-Rinaldi (6-1) as far as he goes, he will make all

CHURCHILL DOWNS

Dream Supreme Stakes

MOST PROBABLE WINNER: 4-Sconsin (9-5) big finisher a tad more tactical than her favored rival

THE VALUE BET: 5-Club Car (4-1) was in all sorts of jackpots last time, trip sitter with switch to Joel today?

EXOTICS PLAYERS: 6-Bell’s the One (7-5) is a win machine, obviously more than just filler, 7-Frank’s Rockette (9-2) prefers outside position

LAUREL PARK

Thirty Eight Go Stakes

MOST PROBABLE WINNER:  7-Josie (9-5) some class relief, added distance and second turn helps, pointed and fresh

THE VALUE BET: 5-Miss Leslie (4-1) a Horse for Course and Distance, big forward move for Gonzalez last time, scores with repeat effort

EXOTICS PLAYER: 9-Artful Splatter (9-2) speedster could easily win this, hurt by wide draw.

WOODBINE RACE COURSE

Grade 3 Maple Leaf Stakes

MOST PROBABLE WINNER:  2-Art of Almost (8-1) forward, late developer, pedigree wants today’s added ground

THE VALUE BET:  4-Sister Otoole (8-1) some class relief, distance/synth-bred, Motion 23% turf to AW, turnback conditioning, first Lasix

EXOTICS PLAYERS:  5-La Lune (8-1) developing and turnback suits, 1-Mervelleux (3-1) class dropper + pole, 10-Lake Lucerne (6-1) late developing, long pedigree, 3-Skygaze (7-2) in-form Casse

Grade 2 Bessarabian Stakes

MOST PROBABLE WINNER:  7-Our Secret Agent (2-1) graded stakes toughened

THE VALUE BET:   5-Aug Lutes (8-1) forward looking and fast, proven at WO

EXOTICS PLAYERS:   4-Lady Speightspeare (4-1) 3-for-3 lifetime,  3-Spun Glass (15-1) slower but improving, won lone AW start,  1-Gidgetta (3-1) Carroll profitable first synth, good low-profile AW pedigree

live column will be upgraded periodically

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4 Responses

  1. Nice,and rare,late DD at the messy big A ! Not the most enticing way to attract bettors with these track conditions,atmosphere.Too many scratches,worse than having Fire Ants on your….. Hey,Herman won a race ( with a longshot,of course) ! Got to get curious about Woodbine and noticed Mark Casse having FOUR horses in a field of 9 or 10. Yes,one of them ,at 3/1 won. That’s a 40% chance of winning a race.Why is this allowed ?Ok,” different owners”, you might add but it reminds me of the old lady who runs the bodega x someone else but in reality,just her name counts.No decisions or interest$ ! My question : Such a Big Deal about a favorite,especially if odds- on,before a race and when he/she runs out of the $, gimmicks,NOBODY mentions why it failed to win, place while complimenting the eventual winner and it’s connections.. Why don’t t say something Why the favorite failed( besides ‘ not firing ) or why not show,in a short reply how he/ she ran in the second half of the race or it had problems in traffic ? Since you got over 24 minutes until the next race? I’m only expecting more especially from races with higher purses,say $ 80K or more,instead of hiding until the next promo is over and then ignoring it at all ? Don’t the majority of bettors,since they made that horse The Favorite, deserve that much,or it Really Is too much ? Haven’t bet a dime on Aquaduct but if the best of part of the track is in the middle why do so many jockeys still try to close on the rail when IT is slower on wet conditions ?

    1. Ps: Don’t tell anyone but this young man ,Wolfston, a Ballston,NY native jockey is a great story and,btway, he has won 7 out of his last 20 races including the Arthur Schiller at Aquaduct with his $ 90 mount.Hey,dream on young man !

    2. I have a day job, but thank you. There plenty of red boarding on racing TV, further, I’m not here to hold anyone’s hand, only to reach the most people with what I believe interests them most… What did horseplayers do before the information age I wonder?

  2. Am aware of young Mr Wolfsont, and he’s been a quite a roll recently. I looked at the winner again post race and there were some things to like. Don’t get me wrong, there was the class hike and wide draw– which he overcame — and I thought that was too big an ask. So did everyone; 44-1 was much too big a price. That’s not red-boarding, that’s fact.

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