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The Conscience of Thoroughbred Racing

TAMPA BAY TODAY – JAN 22

For those of us attempting to beat favorite Layla Noor (2-1) from the prolific Delacour/Centeno team at Tampa Bay Downs, several things need to happen.

First, there had better be some reasonable pace on, and a perfectly soft stalking trip would be to the detriment of all other challengers. Easier said than done, of course.

Three others have a license to win this featured fifth race N2X allowances going a mile on turf, from the inside-out; Primela (5-1), Rosebud’s Hope (9-2) and Joy Nidera (4-1).

Primela is in for a tag coming off an April 2019 layoff out of Keeneland’s key G2 Appalachian and Rosebud’s Hope is a “now horse” turning back to a mile, a trip at which she won half of her 8 lifetime starts.

But we have a hunch that Joy Nidera, dropping out of Gulfstream’s recent My Charmer, is the “best mare.”

First, this is her second start off a year’s layup and the My Charmer made no sense unless Ignacio Correas thought it was the best way to get her ready for this.

At 46-1, she made an undramatic but useful mid-race move and was protected, ridden out, by Johnny after having no chance at victory.

The thing she has been in training–in Oldsmar–since November. She worked a bullet five furlongs before shipping south.

Back home, she’s had four trials since the Gulf tightener and this is her second start on Lasix. Check out GP video of her DEC 14 race and see if you think it’s enough to move her forward.

Jesus Castanon has been riding at a profitable 31% clip for this barn the past two months. We learn if she’s good enough by mid-card as Wednesday is “go day.” The early line quote is relatively fair but prefer a bit more given the open nature of this race.

Tampa Bay Bonus Play: Race 9 — Moms Love (10-1) WPS

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