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SATURDAY UPDATE: RACING UPSETS ALWAYS LOOM, FINDING THEM NOT ALWAYS POSSIBLE

HALLANDALE, FL., January 8, 2021 — Let’s take a look around the country, starting in the northern part of the state and working our way back home to South Florida by way of Louisiana, Southern California and New York.

No races with names today but a competitive allowances with fillies and mares two-turning a mile on the Tampa turf. Sunshine will rule as a major storm figures to hit the northwest part of the state.

In New Orleans, Fair Grounds will host the Menard Memorial, a turf sprint at 5-1/2 furlongs and a rematch of the exacta finishers in the Pan Zareta, Elle Z and the wide runnerup, Into Mystic.

The latter is favored on the early line, 9-5 vs. 7-2. The winner will pay the price for that victory, picking up four pounds for the rematch. We’ll have more on this contest in tomorrow’s wagering template.

In Arcadia, a pair of graded stakes back-to-back, the eighth race G3 La Canada at 1-1/16 miles, billed as a match of a pair that have become recent rivals. Bob Baffert’s Fighting Man (9-5) vs. John Shirreffs Hard Not to Live (2-1). At first glance, this was more than a two-horse affair.

The second half of the graded stakes double is the G3 Las Cinegas, fillies and mares sprinting 6 furlongs out of the new turf chute and the two that will attract the most attention and handle are Oleksandra (9-5) and Jolie Olimpica (5-2).

When last seen, Oleksandra was a troubled fifth following a slow start in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint. She and Joel Rosario will be flying late at Jolie Olimpico, most intriguing given her (7) 5-2-0 career slate. When last seen she was second in the G1 Jenny Wiley last July at Keeneland.

Cross country in New York, a handful of state-breds will sprint 7 furlongs in the Say Florida Sandy. Funny Guy is 3-5 on the line to repeat an effort good enough to win a NY Stallion Series event last out. It’s not a race that gets the pulse racing.

Back hone in South Florida, there will be a mandatory Rainbow 6 payout with a pool guaranteed minimum of $1.4 million. The best news is that the featured G3 Tropical Park Turf is a highly competitive mile event and easily the best betting race in simo-world.

At first blush, six of the nine entrants can win this and none are drawn outside, increasing the intrigue. Chad Brown saddles Analyze It (2-1)but there are some interesting miler types in there to make things very interesting.

TAMPA BAY DOWNS

Race 8 Allowances

MOST PROBABLE WINNER: Mary’s France (3-1)

THE VALUE BET: Aziza (9-2)

EXOTICA: Two exacta boxes: Mary’s France, Aziza, My Sister’s Keeper (10-1); Mary’s France, Aziza, Global Brand (8-1)

FAIR GROUNDS

Menard Memorial

MOST PROBABLE WINNER: Into Mystic (9-5)

THE VALUE BET: Play On (3-1)

EXOTICA: Exacta Box Into Mystic, Play On, Elle Z (7-2); Trifecta Part-Wheel Into Mystic and Play On with each other and Elle Z for second and third (2x3x3)

SANTA ANITA

G3 La Canada

MOST PROBABLE WINNER: Fighting Mad (9-5)

THE VALUE BET: None

EXOTICA: Exacta Box Fighting Mad and Hard Not to Love (2-1); Cold Rolling Double: Fighting Mad with Jolie Olimpica

G3 Las Cienigas

MOST PROBABLE WINNER: Jolie Olimpica (9-5)

THE VALUE BET: Lighthouse (5-2)

EXOTICA: Exacta and Trifecta Key-Box Jolie Olimpica with Lighthouse and Oleksandra (9-5)

GULFSTREAM PARK

Race 9 Allowances

MOST PROBABLE WINNER: Town Classic (5-2)

VALUE BET: All Around (9-2)

EXOTICA: Exacta Box Town Classic, All Around, Joe Di Maggio (6-1). Exacta Box Town Classic, All Around, I’m a G Six (4-1).

G3 Tropical Park Turf

MOST PROBABLE WINNER: Analyze It (2-1)

VALUE BET: Frostmourne (9-2)

EXOTICA: $2 Exacta Box Analyze It and Frostmourne. Superfecta Key-Box Analyze It and Frostmourne 1-2-3 with Casa Creed (8-1), Ride a Comet (5-1), Tusk (15-1) and Hay Dakota (15-1).

With respect for every level, style of player, and bankroll, suggested wagers are expressed at minimums and are proportional unless otherwise indicated: WIN $2, EXACTA $1, TRIFECTA 50-Cents, SUPERFECTA Dime Super

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2 Responses

  1. Thank you Larry, very thoughtful, especially for the HRI Faithful.

    Simplifies things for me and saves upfront money. Will key off Frostmourne. Thanks again!

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