The Horse Race Insider is a privately owned magazine. All copyrights reserved. “Bet with your head, not over it.”

The Conscience of Thoroughbred Racing

MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK: GIVE THANKS FOR THESE LIVE COLLEGE & PRO UPSETTERS

COLLEGE

Colorado over USC by 1

 The Trojans are 3-0, but two of those wins were of the heart attack variety, with USC needing late TDs to pull out the wins. However, head coach Clay Helton is just 3-11 ATS when his team has a win percentage greater than .800, including 0-7 ATS as a favorite of 5 or more points. The Men of Troy are also 0-3 SUATS after playing Utah and 2-8 ATS as home chalk of more than 8 points. QB Kedon Slovis is putting up solid numbers, but the Trojan RB corps is banged up and that might put added pressure on Slovis. On the flip side, the Buffaloes are 2-0 SUATS and ITS this season under new head coach Karl Dorrell and the word out of Boulder is the players are pumped playing for Dorrell and it’s showing early on. This just in from the well-oiled machine: 2-0 SUATS college football conference dogs in Game Three of the season are 17-6 ATS against foes that allow 10 or more points per game, and 4-0 SUATS in the last four as a dog of 14 or fewer points. THE CLINCHER: Colorado head coach Dorrell is 19-6 ATS as a dog, including 12-0 ATS over the last twelve.

NFL

NY Giants over CINCINNATI by 8

When Bengals QB Joe Burrow bowed out for the season with an ACL last week, he took a 2-7-1 SU and 6-3-1 ATS mark with him for his effort. He is a superstar in the making but that saga will resume next season. Today, Ryan Finely steps knowing he is 0-3 SU in his NFL starts, while averaging a mere 11 points per game. Once Burrow made his exit, Washington went on to score 13 unanswered points for an effortless comeback win against a deflated team that witnessed its future momentarily disappear through a tunnel. Finley didn’t stand a chance against a Washington defense that smelled blood and pinned its ears back with Burrow gone. Finley was sacked four times, threw an interception and offered a QB rating of 0.0 by game’s end. Today they take on the resurgent New York Giants, winners in 3 of their last five games, including two in a row. Big Blue is 6-0 ATS as a road favorite when coming off back-to-back SUATS wins, as well as 4-0 ATS when coming off a Bye week. With the battered Bengals 1-8 ATS at home against rested foes, we can only look one-way here today.

NEW ENGLAND over Arizona by 8

The Patriots’ 4-6 start is their worst through 10 games since Bill Belichick’s inaugural campaign in New England when they lost eight of their first 10. Today, while QB Cam Newton takes a 4-12 SU and 5-11 ATS mark in his last sixteen NFL starts into this contest, he is, however, 3-0 SUATS at home in his career against the Cardinals. And speaking of Arizona, the Redbirds are 1-6 ATS the last seven games in this series, and just 1-6-1 ATS as road favorites of fewer than 7 points versus AFC opposition. Granted, New England lost running back Rex Burkhead for the rest of the season to a knee injury that was severe enough that CBS chose not to show replays of it, but the good news is RB Sony Michel has been re-activated off the injury list for the first time since September. Now at risk of not making the playoffs for the first time, Bill Belichick’s back is to the wall, and it’s not a feeling he is accustomed to. That’s because during his tenure with the New England Patriots since 2000, his team has sported a losing record on only 32 occasions – in his first season with the Pats and the only one in which he failed to make a postseason appearance. Rest assured, Belichick does not take well to losing and it’s evident in the Pats’ performances with his teams going 12-7 SU and 14-5 ATS in games with a sub .500 record, including 8-5 SU and 11-2 ATS as an underdog. We seal the deal with THE CLINCHER: Belichick is 11-6 SU and 13-3-1 ATS as a home underdog with the Pa

Share on facebook
Facebook Share
Share on twitter
Twitter Share
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn Share
Share on email
Email
Share on print
Print

⚠ Before you comment

Our staff likes nothing better than to engage with the HRI Faithful and provide a forum for interaction on horseracing and sports. In that spirit, please be kind and reasonable; keep the language clean, and the tone civil. Comments from those who cannot comply will be deleted. Thank you.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *