By HRI Foreign Staff — Races you try to understand and races you simply have to accept, they make the difference. When it comes to making grand national bets, there is no denying that the latter applies to the situation. Nothing about the Grand National ever seems as clear as it should be, even before it starts, and people in the fields gather, the noise builds to a climax. There is already a sense within the crowds, things will not go to plan. While there are obvious reasons, such as the fences or distances, there is also another factor worth considering. In a way, too many variables involved in the race make it impossible to predict anything with total confidence.

Years later, when reflecting on grand national betting tips, I keep thinking of it as a dialogue you hold with yourself more than a game of probabilities and form-based bets. After all, no matter how good your form-based readings were and how experienced you became throughout the years, there always comes a point when it feels like you need to trust your gut instincts more than anything else.

A race that resists being solved

What makes the Grand National different from other races? It may be argued that it is the scale of the event, the number of runners taking part, you only need to picture them lining up to realise order can quickly turn into confusion. However, there is also the question of predictability. Unlike in many other competitions, certain patterns do not emerge as clearly. You get the feeling that the race is resisting attempts of finding an easy solution, an algorithm to use before placing the bet.

First of all, you have to take the sheer number of runners participating in the Grand National into consideration. This means that a certain dynamic is created during the race, with horses packed tightly together, jostling for position long before the race has properly settled. This is a dynamic that makes it hard to predict what will happen next. A well-trained horse capable of travelling fast may become out of competition in a matter of minutes because it gets stuck somewhere in the middle of the race.

Apart from that, there are the obstacles themselves. Yes, they may not appear as challenging as they used to, however, they still make you wonder how a particular horse will deal with it under immense pressure. Some meet the first few fences cleanly, others hesitate for a split second, and in this race that moment is often enough. You can follow the race all the season long, but until you see a specific horse in action, you have no idea whether it is capable of handling all the difficulties.

The power of experience

There is this idea that being experienced with the Grand National may give you a significant advantage. Indeed, there are trainers who regularly participate in the race. Jockeys, on the other hand, are known for their particular skills. Last, but certainly not least, there are punters who bet millions each season in hopes that their intuition was correct.

This is not to say that experience is worthless here, however, it definitely has its limits. There were many cases when perfectly trained, well-prepared horses suddenly failed to cope with all the problems. They could not deal with the pressure of the race for some reason, and everything was over within minutes. You see it happen so quickly, one mistake, one awkward jump, and the rhythm is gone. The more times it happened, the less sure I became of my chances of winning.

There is this feeling of uncertainty approaching you as the day of the Grand National approaches. No matter how many details you analyse, the final decision appears to be based on instinct and nothing else.

Instincts and other mysteries

When it comes to making decisions, we often prefer to trust our logic, calculations, and experience over our guts. However, there comes a point when even the most detailed analysis fails to produce the desired result. There is nothing more frustrating than trying to prove your case to yourself and fail to succeed. 

The truth is that instinct takes over when logic fails to provide the needed answer. There comes a point when all the numbers cease to make sense. You either need to go ahead or abandon this option. The former option looks tempting, but it hardly ever guarantees the result.

Instincts play a role in placing bets despite all the calculations you decide to make. There is always something you feel about a particular horse, a particular race or trainer. The race itself is full of mysteries that make you wonder what will happen next and how you will cope.

Why the race remains interesting

There is nothing unusual about analysing a race to death before putting money on it. However, the Grand National differs greatly. Whether you are at the course or watching from a crowded room, there is always that brief quiet before the race begins. It is one of the few races that still defy any attempts of making predictions. People cannot help wondering what will happen next because everything about the Grand National surprises them.

There is this feeling of excitement coming with the Grand National because it offers a lot more than a common horse race does. People who are interested in gambling in general attend it because they want to test their luck. Those who are experienced in the area are also attracted by the idea of betting on the Grand National.

Last, but not least, there is something about tradition. The race seems to remain unchanged in many ways, and it brings us closer to the past, helping to understand what made people interested in horse racing so long ago.

Learning to accept it

Experience proves that the Grand National is hardly ever what it should be. You keep waiting for the predictable pattern to emerge from the usual record setters, but it simply never happens. It does not mean that you should not at least attempt to find a way of increasing your winnings. Instead, you have to accept the fact that it is not going to be possible with your favourite methods.

Yes, you can read up the form and try your best to choose the most promising horse. It means that all the work has been done. Now, it is time to let the race unfold according to its own logic. You have no chance of influencing what will happen next.