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The Conscience of Thoroughbred Racing

MARC LAWRENCE OF PLAYBOOK ANALYZES THE BEST NFL UPSET CHANCES IN WEEK 3

By Marc Lawrence

Kansas City over Baltimore by 6:

Yes, we are fully aware of the fact that it’s like chugging arsenic trying to beat Lamar Jackson at home. But if there is an antidote, it likely comes in the form of Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.

For openers, Mahomes has NEVER lost a game during September in his NFL career, going 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS – with 28 TD passes and 0 INTs. In addition, the Patomic Bomb is 4-0 SUATS against the AFC North, as well as 6-1 ATS as an NFL dog in his career.

Now that’s an arsenal of numbers if ever there was one. Granted, the Black Birds are certainly not devoid of bullets. After all, they are 21-5 SU behind Jackson – including 11-0 at home during the regular season.

But head coach John Harbaugh is just 1-3 SU in his NFL career in games involving a pair of undefeated foes. And that little chink in the armor may be all that Andy Reid needs as he has won five straight games in battles of the undefeated.

In closing, if you don’t feel the Chiefs’ 11-0 ATS mark away off consecutive wins when facing AFC opponents is enough to light your fire, then try THE CLINCHER: Baltimore is 0-10 ATS as a single-digit favorite when coming off consecutive SUATS wins.

NY Giants over SF by 6

Welcome to the NFL, Joe Judge. After playing two games in which his team had an opportunity to win both contests, he instead resides in the cellar of the NFC East at 0-2 to begin his career.

Should Judge write a book at the conclusion of his head coaching career, it will likely be found under the title of “Woulda, Coulda, Shoulda”.

Rest assured, he’ll learn moving forward. What he won’t have moving forward is star RB Saquon Barkley, who tore an ACL last week and is finished for the season. But that’s only a portion of the absurd injury list surrounding today’s contest.

With the visiting 49ers resembling a M*A*S*H unit with QB Jimmy Garoppolo with a high-ankle sprain, TE George Kittle sidelined week-to-week with an MCL, not to mention the loss of star DE Joey Bosa with an ACL injury of his own.

And we didn’t even mention RB Raheem Mostert with a sprained MCL, Mostert’s backup RB Tevin Coleman with a knee sprain, DB Richard Sherman out with a calf injury, and WR Deebo Samuel with a foot injury. The list goes on and on, rivaling a COVID opt-put list.

The bottom line is that the Niners will still find themselves in the ugly role of a defending Super Bowl losing team as a road favorite in a non-division game (33-55-5 ATS overall). All of which should put a smile on Judge’s face come Sunday. Forget the talk of a potential 14-loss season and landing the top pick in the NFL draft.

Judge was not hired to do that, and if all the Niners’ injuries and their 1-7 ATS mark in Game Three of the season isn’t reason enough to get behind Big Blue today, then try THE CLINCHER: New head coaches in the NFL are 7-1 ATS in Game Three since 2010 if their team scored fewer than 30 points combined in its first two games.

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21 Responses

    1. There you go, C.

      Don't have stats on this situational matchup, but Marc does have a product--if you're interested--believe it's called the Playbook Totals Newsletter available. Not sure about cost but you can probably find more information on his site, Playbook.com.

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