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The Conscience of Thoroughbred Racing

LAUREL LIVE FOR SATURDAY

Interesting that the Saturday feature is identical to Friday’s, namely an N2X optional claiming allowances for 3-year-olds and up sprinting 7 furlongs.

Today’s dilemma is that the two rivals that interest us couldn’t be more disparate; a 3-year-old with a worthy lifetime slate of (5) 3-1-0 that never has run for a price tag and is certainly the main–if not lone–speed.

My Star Potential (5-2) figures to shake loose from his outside slip beneath a live apprentice who is 8-for-18 most recently for a barn that is batting 26% on the year, despite saddling 1,115 runners through Wednesday’s races. Further, he’s worked thrice into this, two of the bullet variety.

What’s not to like is the fact he’s coming off a strongly run career best and has not ventured beyond 6 furlongs with a two-sides speed pedigree. Despite the obvious talent, it’s a lot to ask at a short price.

Conversely, Turkmenistan (8-1) offers value, has also shown some affinity for the Laurel surface and won his only try at today’s demanding sprint distance. Once again, Feargal Lynch, aboard for that score, rides him back once again and the video is worth noting.

Check out Laurel Live Video on the homepage with particular attention to RACE 1 on AUG 2. Note that the 4-year-old never had it easy, racing between horses for a half-mile, caught a break as a seam opened at headstretch, surged to the lead and drew off despite failing to change to his correct lead.

But wait there’s more. Unlike his speedy rival, he is bred for this and longer and has all the condition one needs as he turns back from two longer trips for Anthony Farrior with win stats similar to Claudio Gonzalez, who happens to be 23% profitable cutting back in trip and at today’s level.

We’ll gamble on Turkmenistan to win and will box an exata with his speedy rival.

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5 Responses

  1. Reindeer Up, Riders Up…Thanks for the replay on the Home page John, 2.0 was well worth the wait. I am so sold on your reasoning on this race one John. Feels almost like when following you and Mark when back at Newsday. Any hoot, Turks Works for me. Placing a “red nose” five spot on this one for the Win and wagering an Ex Box as well.

    P.S. I am patiently waiting on the next Derby Future Pool in early February. Should Green Light Go still be listed as Lasix free, I plan on wagering a two dollar ticket for Mark in hopes of getting him back o/n the sideline simply to know of his presence as a fan and friend. Maybe you could ask him to post the name of his “partnered ownership” runner so some of us at HRI might be able to follow his filly during 2020.

    A Peaceful Christmas and Joyous Hanukkah, and a Happy New Year 2020 to all.

    Turks Works and wins by a Red Nose McD.

  2. Well now you’ve done it, you’ve gotten me in the spirit! Always good to hear from you McD. My hope is that it’s just the beginning. In talks with Tampa at the moment; hoping to do it again.

    You know, I swear, as I was writing today’s “Live” analysis Thursday afternoon, I recalled my handicapping days at Newsday.

    Now I need to recapture that mojo. The game wasn’t any easier back then, but it certainly seems like it was a lot less complicated.

  3. John, In the pre-race day medication era it was less complicated. Horses simply ran more often, and past performances were far more indicative of how a horse “might” run. For me any how, coming off the bench off a long layoff in todays game is far less predictable. I so miss the larger fields, and the spacing of a week or two between contests. Horses also carried a greater weight disparity between them, at least in the starter’s handicaps, which in a way also made handicapping more predictable. And finally, the last two flashes on the tote board of late can negate all of the aforestated. So miss the simplicity of years ago, when at an expense of all of five cents, you could read the daily thoughts of Harris, Berner & Pricci. “Those were the days my friends” indeed Archie!

    But then again, back in that era, we were not rewarded by the “special occasions” photos by Toni!
    Merry Christmas to Photos by “Toni” as well John Boy, Peace, McD

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