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The Conscience of Thoroughbred Racing

TAMPA BAY THURSDAY

With weather forecasts iffy vis a vis potential thunderstorms Thursday afternoon, horses entered in turf races need versatility to handle whatever the conditions.

In the finale, a maiden allowances for three year olds sprinting on grass, it is a first-time starter that has the potential to handle whatever conditions may arise.

That may sound antithetical but Swill Mountain (3-1) has several variables in her favor, namely nurture and nature.

While trainer Robert Smith is known more for his second-time starters than firsters, his 13% debut record and 58% in-the-money slate with newcomers indicates that it’s not for a lack of trying.

Of greater import is his pedigree. Midshipman has a 15% strike rate with newcomers from a sizable sample, a strong success rate. Further, the grandson of Unbridled’s Song wins at a 14% rate on turf, 13% making turf debuts. And of the dam’s seven foals to race, six of those Florida-breds were winners.

Betting Swill Mountain to win at 3-1 or greater.

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