By Marc Lawrence, PlaybookSports.com — ESPN’s Football Power Index sees two teams as notable favorites to reach the Super Bowl.
Ten weeks through the 2023 season, the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs have the highest probabilities to win the Super Bowl at 20.9 and 20.8 percent, respectively.
However, the Chiefs have a higher probability of winning their conference (38%) than the 49ers (35.1) because the Philadelphia Eagles loom close behind (30.9).
The 49ers reclaimed the No. 1 spot in ESPN’s FPI by snapping a three-game losing streak in a demonstrative 34-3 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars.
The Chiefs return from their Week 10 bye as the AFC favorites. No team has a better chance of winning its division than Kansas City’s 94.5 percent.
The model sees the Miami Dolphins (21.3) and Baltimore Ravens (18.2) as Kansas City’s two biggest threats to seize the AFC crown.
In the NFC, the Dallas Cowboys have a 17 percent chance of reaching the Super Bowl and a 9.2 percent probability of capturing the Lombardi Trophy. The Detroit Lions have a 9.2 percent chance of earning their first Super Bowl appearance and a 3.5 percent shot of winning the whole thing.