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The Conscience of Thoroughbred Racing

ONE HANDICAPPER’S APPROACH TO BETTING THE OAKS — PLUS THE OAKS-DERBY DOUBLE

Hallandale Beach, FL, May 3, 2024 — I’m too old to buy into hyperbole but, in my mind and heart, this is the deepest Classics weekend I am about to witness this side of Breeders’ Cup in my lifetime.

Two extraordinary races featuring extraordinary fillies and colts, the most compelling Oaks-Derby Double matchup imaginable. Since chivalry is still alive here at HRI: Ladies first:

Starting with the A-B-C’s of it: Recall that when more than one horse is included in any category, preferences are listed in graded order: Vexing decisions were the rule, not the exception.

Horses may be upgraded or downgraded, but by not more than one category:

A: 13-11-8-5

B: 14-Leslie’s Rose, 3-Where’s My Ring, 15-Our Pretty Woman

C: 12-Power Squeeze, 6-Lemon Muffin

Exacta Box: 5-6-11-13

Thrifty Trifectas and Superfectas:

Trifecta Box 5-8-11-13

Trifecta Wheel: 11-13 // 5-8-11-13-14 // 3-5-6-8-11-12-13-14-15

Superfecta Wheel A: 11-13 // 11-13 // 3-5-6-8-12-14-15 // 3-5-6-8-12-14-15

Superfecta Wheel B: 11-13 // 3-5-8- // 11-13 // 3-5-5-6 -8 // 3-5-6-8-12-14-15

Straight Wager: Just F Y I to win absolute minimum 7-2

Oaks-Derby Double: 5-8-11-13 with 17

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4 Responses

  1. Wonder how many so – called talented experts, and there are too many of them with their cheap videos-podcasts-selfies, etc.. will now wish that they could change their original opinions knowing that, more than likely, it will be an off track. Are retractions free? Nice race , and good J Pricci combo pics, if I’m not mistaken, from the exacta to the gimmicks ! Tired of watching which anonymous, once famous person picks which horse since they rarely give a good reason for it. I thought I had the triple until the winner on one of my really favorite jockeys went on to win it. A question: I’m sure this question has come up before, I mean, I’m no violin player but any chance to give these young females more exposure by having more than just ‘ One day in the Sun” , or rain ? Why not a female adaptation of a Triple Crown let us say, within two or three months being run in first class, reputable racetracks(No, not in Laurel !!) I mean, who’s going to remember today s Oak winner a few months from now ( besides real aficionados, insiders ,patrons ,bettors ?) ..jus’ wonderin’ .

  2. The Derby should be an on off track, correct ? If so, does it change your betting
    tactics? Maybe favoring more closers who are within a certain distance of the Speed horses and away from the rail ?

    1. JG, not a fan of wet tracks but historically, Churchill Downs is the fastest drying surface I’ve observed of all the major venues — and a good argument for synthetic0track safety, too, as wet never matters all that much on synthetic surfaces.

      As far as betting tactics, it was much like today; race watching is key. The routes were more tiring than the speedy sprints, although it didn’t seem to bother Thorpedo Anna all that much.

      Have three horses for your stable mail entries: Ova Charged, a complete turf-sprint freak, First Mission, who is going to have a big year, and Prove Worthy, who flew home from last when speed was holding early in the day, getting up for third going a flat mile.

      As for your first post, ‘Anna’ will be a player the rest of the year and they may remember her name if/when she becomes a champion–she’s the leader in the clubhouse at the moment.

      I thought all networks struggled to get information to fans and bettors amid all the “event” events going on a the racetrack–which were an annoying distraction throughout the day..

      1. Yeah, won’t be surprised if someday they will be parading on who has the ‘ best’ ( stupid) hat, or any such ‘ attraction ‘ ,after all, some Forty minutes between races have to be filled with Anything ! About the big race today ,still leaning with a couple of closers, and the favorite could be one of them. Hard to go against those numbers….

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