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The Conscience of Thoroughbred Racing

MARC LAWRENCE: RIPE FOR AN UPSET IN THE BIGGEST COLLEGE GAME OF THE WEEKEND

By Marc Lawrence — According to our SEC Scout, Jaybird the Bulldog, the biggest drawback to being a fan and a sports bettor is “when you go against your own team and they stick it in your…”

It happened last week when Georgia trailed the 13-point underdog Vols, 21-17, with less than 3 minutes remaining in the first half – then outscored Tennessee 27-0 in the second half for the shocking final.

Needless to say, the immense internal struggle between Jaybird wanting his Bulldogs to win outright but needing Tennessee to cover the spread was so punishing that it landed him in a trauma unit at game’s end (check status).

It’s been a crazy season, too, for Dawgs HC Kirby Smart, especially when it comes to the QB position. But Stetson Bennett seems to be the guy right now in Athens and Smart has reloaded the receiving corps with NFL-caliber athletes.

It has been the defense, though, that has really shined. With the game on the line, Georgia held the Vols to 71 yards on 39 plays in the second half and forced 5 turnovers.

They are ranked 3rd in the nation in rushing defense and held Tennessee to negative yardage on the ground last week, and they’ll definitely have Najee Harris in their sights.

Also, keep in mind that Smart is 9-3 ATS with revenge (Dawgs lost to the Tide in the 2018 SEC title game and in the 2017 NCAA title game) and Georgia is 7-0 SU in games when both teams own an undefeated record.

It’s hard to pass on a pedigree dog with 226 YPG the better defense, but the times are a-changing and this could be a perfect example of unstoppable force meets immovable object, as the Tide scored touchdowns on eight straight possessions to close the game against Ole Miss last week.

Nick Saban is 21-0 SU versus former assistants, so these are all good things for the here and now – EXCEPT that the Tide’s defense is the worst Saban has ever guided, and none of his troops in those games owned a -140-yard defensive disparity.

Georgia over ALABAMA by 3

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2 Responses

  1. These days it is hard to be a winning public, professional handicapper, from horses to football. A twice national contest champ, S F, with a winning ATS streak of some twelve games in a row ,when Covid 19 came stopped everything and changed it all. Now he is a poor 4- 15 since with mostly losing propositions in the NBA, NFL with diverse [ over, under, odds, etc..]. Makes one wonder if any Mojo, if it exists, has vanished. Add to that a NY horse handicapper whose public best bets, usually odds -on favorites had a dismal 30 win average. That is with strong Favorites !! Other propositions from newly accepted betting sites [Visn,DK,FD],have not fared any better. Now I look at what Mr Lawrence suggests and wonder if with the $ 10 million coach Saban, staying at home if anything would change on the sidelines and on the field comparing to a drastic, jockey change. Will this probable game of the college year offer any surprises, but more 1mportantly, what will it be a surprise? I lived in Athens ,Ga and enjoyed the Broad Street vibe, even if for a few short while. Smart leaning, Bulldogs need to swat this bug on their tail.

  2. I’m sure there was a point here, winning streaks, losing streaks, odds on losers (conveniently omitting bets that succeed) all handicappers, and bettors who follow them lose.

    All are welcome to submit selections under the Dealer’s Choice section with real names, not pseudonyms, so that readers can do some side by side comparison. Let’s have an honest handicapping dialogue…

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