MAX’S NEW TRAINER HAS A 67% CHANCE OF WINNING AND 0% CHANCE OF LOSING!

By Keith Pettyjohn

ARLINGTON, TX — Several writers, podcasters and other media personnel have commented that Bob Baffert is basically in a no-win situation with Maximum Security.

I’ve read their articles, listened to their podcasts, and even watched them on TV, and I’m here to tell them that they’re wrong, and here’s why.

First, I think that we all can agree that Maximum Security has to do one of three things in future races: One, he can improve. Two, he can run about the same. And three, he can regress.

Let’s take a look at each one of the three scenarios individually:

Scenario One: Bob gets a new horse, Maximum Security. He gets his system cleared of whatever “medication” that cause trainers to get indicted. He also gives the horse time to continue growing and mature into a 4-year-old race horse. He gets the horse onto his training regimen and vastly different workout program. The horse comes back better than he was in the San Diego and goes to be better than he was with Jason Servis. Bob is the winner.

Scenario Two: Bob gets a new horse, Maximum Security. He gets his system cleared of whatever “medication” that cause trainers to get indicted. He also gives the horse time to continue growing and mature into a 4-year-old race horse. He gets the horse onto his training regimen and vastly different workout program. The horse comes back just as good as he’s always been, right where he left off. Bob is the winner.

Scenario Three: Bob gets a new horse, Maximum Security. He gets his system cleared of whatever “medication” that cause trainers to get indicted. He also gives the horse time to continue growing and mature into a 4-year-old race horse. He gets the horse onto his training regimen and vastly different workout program. The horse comes back and doesn’t run as well. As a matter of fact, let’s say the horse lays an egg for three or four races.

Well, Bob can now say that the horse is just not the same without the “medication” that can get trainers indicted. He’s still a fully intact colt, running in the prestigious Coolmore silks now, so let’s retire him before he loses any of his current value.

Well if the widely acknowledged best dirt trainer in the world can’t get this horse to run without his old “juice” then it’s not Bob’s faultt, so off to the breeding shed he goes.

Bob may not actually have actually won anything there but he didn’t lose anything, either. That’s actually a break-even for him, a push.

So Bob has a two in three chance of coming out the winner while having a zero in zero chance of coming out of this a loser.

And one final note: For Bob to bring this horse back from a 147-day layoff and get a 105 Class Performance Rating out of him reinforces why many think he is the best dirt trainer in the world. In any scenario, he’s got nothing to lose.

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9 Responses

  1. Interesting take Keith. If we are to take Baffert at his word, he said that Max was about 80 percent for the San Diego, wanting to leave fuel in the tank. That’s a plausible explanation indeed.

    But considering that most trainers tell you the truth about 80 percent of the time, there’s that to consider. My Guess? He moves forward.

    However, I must say that as of this moment, I’m a little fascinated at the prospects of Richard Mandella making his dirt debut with the turf accomplished United.

    Like many of the game’s great, past and present, he didn’t earn his lofty reputation by making too many mistakes.

    1. We’ll have to see how he runs coming back to the dirt. In his last three turf races he has run Class-Based Performances in the low 100’s.
      101 on July 26th
      103 on May 23rd
      100 on Feb 1st

      That means that he’s several lengths behind what it will take to win over Max. But, as we know already, Mr. Mandella is one helluva horseman. Maybe he sees something that the numbers don’t show.

  2. After not having access to Saddlebreds anymore, I turned my love to the Thoroughbred. And what really won me over was/is Bob Baffert. I love funny, quippy, sarcastic people that give journalists/reporters something different. I was, and still am, sorry that his heart attack has calmed his humorous comebacks because I miss the old Bob Baffert. What mystifies the heckfire outta me is why is there so much venom toward this man, who is recognized the industry over as The Best. I’ve run across one person that hated him because he “cheats” as if he’s the only one ever in the Thoroughbred racing world that’s been suspected of that. I for one, don’t believe he’s ever purposely, intently cheated. I chalked up the cheating hatred as a personal vendetta towards a husband or boyfriend and now all ‘cheaters’ are on the list. Anyway, I love Bob Baffert. So sue me.

    1. You are certainly entitled, and Mr. Baffert is without doubt a charming, witty and charismatic man.

      The source of much of the venom, of which jealousy does play a part, is the fact that–I believe it was 2017–he had seven horses die within an approximate 18-month period of sudden equine death syndrome.

      The cause, just as it was with horses that have had test positives, always seem to be the victim of environmental contamination.

  3. This addition has to be someone’s senile alter ego trip! Only 14 views in over three months,maybe even by the same ‘ Creator this fictional ,temporary,arrangement with some old Las Vegas style post office address . The intro could have been more succinct instead of blabbing about nonsense since the writerJP or KP, does not really know who the competition will be. If my broker would talk like that he would lose me as an investor.Where is the Bio?What is the experience,resume,Curriculum Vitae ? Results?Bologna is an American German product a large ,wide hot dog which can be sliced or cut into chunks. The city of Bologna has nothing to do with it.They have Prosciutti and other delicacies much better than that crappy,garlicky stuff with unknown ingredients,chemicals.Maybe you might know more about Spam,or maybe not which would surprise me. Yes it might be Free ,Gratis now but who knows if it will be worth anything. “Tired of losing?” No one mentioned that you,or anyone else, would indicate these few elderly patrons of any sure thing and if you ever thought that you had one why would you,or me , divulge it free ? Brohamer and partners were very bright and to the point but not you.I just hope that when I will be as old as you I won’t need to see my real name in print as if it might give me extra vain and ego points ,or caresses on the posterior just like my domestic friends want to be reassured daily. Have not needed that since my 18 Birthday or since my first dozen fights .Scars teach us a lot.That is part of growing up and sensing BS even before we get close to it.You will Never be as young as you are today: Cut the BS!

    1. This is your second disparagement and the commented were/are posted in their entirety.

      You are free to reject or, better yet, bet against, and make yourself score after score. Don’t understand why you would point out our shortcomings when you can keep it to yourself and win lots of money.

      Have a nice day…

      1. Before the curtains come down,why don’t you admit the truth or answer my questions?Shortcomings? Is that a penile self reference? So, is that a new ” Front” created by you or not? A fictional,of course,Alter Ego ? The so called style looks the same and you,KP or JP ,have not answered the main questions that ” smart consumers ” Would want to know. It reminds one of ” The Emperor’s New Clothes” fable. Dig it ?Have a realistic Summer.

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