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The Conscience of Thoroughbred Racing

Saturday at Belmont: Would you like some fries with that chalk?

A turf stakes double header in Elmont on Saturday comes with a 40% chance that thunderstorms might serve as the backdrop. We shall see.

The good news is that Saturday’s 7th and 8th race double makes for what is, on paper, an easy ticket to cash.

And the bad news? The fields are small and both grass horses are trained by Chad Brown.

In the Perfect Sting, for older fillies and mares going a mile, Uni is the 3-5 early line favorite. The 5 year old mare has made four starts at today’s trip. Her next defeat at the distance will be her first.

If you think that making a seasonal debut would be a major deterrent, note that she won the Plenty of Grace in her return from a long freshening in 2018. Her Thoro-Graph figures indicates that she lays over the group.

Uni is the most probable winner at a very short price. But while second favorite (2-1) Bellavais has good company lines, the value may be exactas combining Mrs. Ramona G (6-1), 2-for-3 at Belmont and 1-for-2 at the trip.

So, now that we’re alive in the double, there’s no need to back Dunbar Road (4-5) to win. (The double, should it win, would pay somewhere in the neighborhood of 2-1)!

Dunbar Road is 2-for-3 lifetime, the wins coming at 5+ and 8+ lengths respectively. Her only loss was a tough trip second in the G2 Gulfstream Park Oaks. However, her task in the G1 Mother Goose Stakes is a little more daunting than Uni’s.

Jeltrin (4-1) is a really nice filly and her figures are competitive with the favorite’s. Like the choice, one turn suits her. She won the G2 Davona Dale at GP and was a game third to uber-impressive Guarana in her local debut, the G1 Acorn mile. Leonel Reyes gets a return call.

This is another case where a Brown trainee is the most probable winner. But we’ll go for value and bet on Jeltrin to win, at 3-1 or more, and box an exacta with the favorite.

Interesting to note that Uni, (13) 7-2-2, is nowhere close to being the best turf mare in Brown’s shed. Dunbar Road, meanwhile, might not even be the best 3YO filly in his barn. Guarana was monstrous in her Acorn victory.

YESTERDAY:

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