The most interesting offering to begin Christmas week in Hallandale is a maiden allowances for 3 year olds and up going 1-1/16 miles on the Gulfstream turf–hopefully–as management has been very careful with its use of the new course with the championship meet about to start on Monday.
It’s a three-horse race on paper and while Aruba (3-1) is consistently faster on the Thoro-Graph Scale we’d rather shop for some value with two others. But make no mistake, with Aruba’s running style, the winning style and switch to Irad will ensure he will be a tough out.
The two interesting runners are Tepper (6-1), coming off an excellent last-out effort for Kelsey Danner who is wrapping up a career year and on a bit of a roll at present. She also boasts and worthy ROI when her charges make the switch from synth to turf. Edgar Perez takes the call.
Ultimately, however, in addition to a three horse exacta box, we will hang our straight hat on Surrogate (7-2), whose barn, Patrick Biancone, is also profitable with the Tapeta to turf switch and gets Miguel Vasquez on the re-ride.
Surrogate’s figures are just as good as the favorite’s, running well against the race dynamics in last and has turf experience, running well in his racing debut on turf at 11 furlongs, finishing third despite losing his action after taking a bad step.
Check it out for yourself: Churchill Downs, MAY 30, Race 9. He exits a live race and he worked strongly on the PMM turf course in preparation for this. Good chance the odds will be fair.
We’re taking Surrogate to win at 7-2 or greater in addition to the previously mentioned exacta box.
