It sounds easy but in their quest for value, handicappers can tend to overthink the problem. For some, myself among them, it took a while to heed this old school lesson: “Take what they give you.”
Trainers tell their riders all the time not to take away anything that comes easy. Not that today’s feature–six hard-hitting optional-allowance very closely matched sprinters–is easy, but the dynamics say that it should be.
We’re going to do something different today, showing you a horse we’re deathly afraid of, the old pro Showalter. In the Laurel Live video on the homepage, note NOV 3, RACE 8. He looks like the exacta box of choice.
Showalter finished third but impressed us because in mid-stretch he was surrounded by four horses after making all and still kept digging down to the wire. He never gave up. Today, with an outside post and a slightly longer trip, he might not get the mid-race pace pressure he did in his last.
Having said that, there is speed inside and he won’t get away that soft. That’s why Alveenu Malcainu (5-2) is such a perfect fit. His recent blowout win came on a sealed, sloppy track but he ended the race looking for more.
This uber sharp runner handles any footing and, with his cozy inside draw, the race should fall right into the lap of Trevor McCarthy. If it continues to rain as predicted, that bolsters his chance for victory.