Lots has been made about the amount of early speed in this highly competitive edition of the Breeders’ Cup Classic, properly so. But can anyone really run with Knocks Go early?
Most horsemen and handicappers agree; it probably can’t be done.
So what do the other speeds do? For one, Johnny Velazquez stated he is going to the front and will not take Medina Spirit of of his game. Hot Rod Charlie has some tactical gas and gets blinkers and is fresh; will he be close to the lead? And you know Art Collector will be. So what to do?
The logical thing is to hope that someone will apply pressure at some point and soften him up; something no one’s been able to do in his last three runs which he won by a collective 18-1/4 lengths making all the pace. Or maybe he won’t get the mile and a quarter trip?
Of just maybe Travers winner Essential Quality is the best dirt horse in America who is classy enough, gritty, enough, fast enough and game enough to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic, by any means necessary. And that’s how we’re playing it. Essential Quality to win and keying him in superfectas with ‘Art’, ‘Charlie’, ‘Knicks’, Max Player and Tripoli.
WORST BEAT SINCE ALLUMEUSE
I won’t have to go into much detail? Below is an example of the only thing we got right yesterday which was cut and pasted from our Breeders’ Cup analysis available yesterday online via Pay Pal:
“Win Bet Value: 1-Modern Games (5-1) to win at 9-2 or greater.
Exotics Horses: 2-Albahr (6-1), 3-Dakota Gold (8-1), 11-Grafton Street (15-1), 4-Tiz the Bomb (8-1), 6-Mackinnon (8-1)”
You know the rest: Modern Games won handily but was running for purse money only, which was fair and according to California rule regarding wrongfully scratched horses–that he be reinstated in the race after being prematurely and wrongfully withdrawn on the advice of an attending veterinarian.
Albahr, thankfully, was not seriously injured. The same re legendary rider Frankie Dettori.
With Albahr’s absence, and with Modern Games running for purse only, the order of finish in the superfecta was: Tiz the Bomb (7.60-1), Mackinnon 6.30-1), Grafton Street 22.80), and Dakota Gold (2.70-1). The Dime Super returned $501.49.
Of course, it would have paid less had Modern Games, around 5-2 at post time if memory serves, would have been, what, halved? That would have been OK, especially compared to zero.
Why didn’t I make a four-horse Super box for $2.40? It never occurred to me–and one doesn’t approach the wager in that fashion, anyway.
Here’s one more irony, which didn’t didn’t cost money. The horse who officially finished first, Tiz the Bomb, broke through the gate and ran off a bit faster and farther than Modern Games did yesterday.
And the veterinarian interviewed on NBC was a little disingenuous in his response: Modern Games did not break through the gate; the stall door was opened by an assistant starter so that the horse could escape possibly harm.
The noise you hear are horseplayers turning the page to Saturday’s entries.
STATEMENT FROM BREEDERS’ CUP LIMITED
Breeders’ Cup races are subject to CHRB rules, including Rule 1974 B which states:
“If a horse is removed from the wagering pool due to a totalizator error, or due to any other error, and neither the trainer nor the owner is at fault, the horse shall start in the race as a non-wagering interest for the purse only and shall be disregarded for pari-mutuel purposes.”
The decisions leading up to today’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf were made under the authority of the CHRB. Please refer to the advisory put out by the CHRB earlier this evening for additional details and direct any further questions directly to them.
We thank the CHRB for their thorough review of this situation, and we regret the impact this has had on the betting public.
The health and safety of our equine and human athletes is our top priority and we are thankful for the safety of all involved.