Most handicappers will agree that there can be dramatic improvement from debut to start number two, especially the babies. So why not ride that angle into the Gulfstream circle on Thursday? Because Perfect Provision’s first race left me wanting more.
I ascribe to the theory that in racing and sports, horses/teams are not as good as they look when they win nor as bad they look when they lose. But I’m willing to forsake that wisdom here. Find her replay online to see whether you read her effort the same way: Gulfstream, AUG 13, Race 6.
We have all seen horses that need a run, but the way Perfect Provision tired, even after switching leads midstretch, was woeful. She had a right to tire, but not that badly in our view. And Saffie Joseph, not setting the world afire anywhere at the moment, it seems a poor risk at an early line of 8-5.
The problem is there are several viable alternatives that can be backed on either pedigree, or workouts, or trainer angles. We’ll take the latter and risk a small wager on Mark Casse runner Thataint Tooshabby, as opposed to, say, the Tom Proctor or Ron Spatz newcomers.
We like that after a series of workouts at Palm Meadows, Casse brought Thataint Tooshabby (4-1) back to his Ocala training center, gave her some time, then put the finishing touches on—read bullets here—before sending her back to Palm Meadows prior to her GP debut.
Her pedigree is a nice blend of speed to stamina, the workouts are showing, and Edwin Gonzalez is in the boot. The young, aggressive rider is three for his last nine rides for this barn. We’ll take her straight, but will need at least 3-1 ante post to do it.
EXOTICA (posted 6:49 pm)
I don’t know how much ability Kelly Bag (12-1) has. But given her debut, which bears seeking out, I don’t know how one horse can get more education than this Uncle Mo filly did. If she has any ability, who knows what she’s capable of. Maybe a stretch-out next time, but I’ll key-box exactas with the Casse and Joseph fillies and perhaps saver win wager–double digits?–as well.