Liberty over Georgia Southern by 1
We take a break from MAC-bashing to set you up with this guaranteed-to-win bar bet: which FBS conference owns the best bowl record over
the past three seasons? The answer is the Sun Belt, whose teams have
gone 11-5 SU recently in post-season play. That puts the spotlight
on Georgia Southern, now 17-8 SU under 2nd-year head coach Chad
Lunsford, and playing in its second straight bowl. As for Liberty, the
Flames had their prayers answered when they landed their first-ever FBS
bowl berth, despite needing 7 wins to do the trick (played 2 FCS teams).
Don’t forget that former Ole Miss head coach Hugh Freeze is now calling
the shots in Lynchburg, and he shows up with a 3-1 SUATS record in bowl
games and a 16-7 ATS mark as a dog versus .500 or greater foes. More
good news for the flames: bowl virgin dogs are 16-4-1 ATS when both
teams are coming off a win and their opponent allows 22.5 or more
PPG. Freeze puts a more balanced team on the field offensively, rushing
for 152 YPG while passing for almost 291, while Georgia Southern is all
about the run. In fact, if you thought Army and Navy’s passing games
were extinct, wait until you get a load of the Eagles’ air squad – dead
last in the land, averaging 72.8 PYPG (the good news is they’re the only
team in the nation not to have a pass intercepted). And despite rushing
for a whopping 261 YPG, GSU still ranks No. 116 in First Down Offense
and No. 122 in 3rd Down Conversion Percentage (31.5). With a 4-2 SUATS
record versus the Sun Belt, Liberty gets our vote to win a close decision
over an Eagles team that has trouble playing from behind.
