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The Conscience of Thoroughbred Racing

4TH and Uh-Oh

By Marc Lawrence, — If the Super Bowl comes down to a crucial fourth-down choice by Bengals coach Zac Taylor or Rams counterpart Sean McVay, history shows they may opt for the conservative path.

According to analytics company EdjSPorts, Taylor ranked 21st and McVay 23rd in its Critical Call Index.

Its win probability model relies on historical play-by-play data adjusted for variables such as strength and weaknesses of both teams, plus injuries and other factors.

Their analysis said McVay’s fourth-down decisions cost the Rams about one-third of a game in win probability all season as they had a league-low five attempts when needing more than one-yard.

Taylor’s decisions cost the Bengals more than a quarter of a win all season.

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