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The Conscience of Thoroughbred Racing

TAMPA BAY DOWNS-DEC 30

Under partly sunny skies, the turf course will be in play and we’re looking at one of the last maiden allowances of the juvenile year, the second division of a one mile event for fillies. And in Wednesday’s seventh, we’re taken what seems to be a given.

Favorite Queen of the Green (2-1) is going to be a very tough out, especially considering she is the fastest filly in the group on the Thoro-Graph scale and drops precipitously considering prior turf tries came at Gulfstream Park and Keeneland.

One can rightfully argued that she should run fast over the naturally firmer Gulfstream course but the fact that she raced well over Keeneland’s demanding grass surface should address an concerns vis a vis adaptability here.

If that doesn’t do it, considering her last trip in Hallandale, not the easiest race dynamics to overcome. Check out the TAMPA BAY TODAY Video and note that not only was she wide throughout after having drawn slip #12 but at no time did she ever stop trying: GULFSTREAM, DEC 5, RACE 1.

Drawn wide once again but racing clear against this group should get today’s job done. Yes, there’s a Chad Brown first time starter to overcome and the filly just outside her, Lisheen (4-1) for Graham Motion, finished well for third in her course debut.

Taking Queen of the Green to win, no price restrictions, an exacta box with Lisheen, and using Brown FTS Naval Battle (5-2) complete the trifecta.

(As always, the amount wagered is up to the player but the suggested bet ratios are, at minimums; $2 straight, $1 exacta, 50-Cent trifecta, 10-Cent superfecta)

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⚠ Before you comment

Our staff likes nothing better than to engage with the HRI Faithful and provide a forum for interaction on horseracing and sports. In that spirit, please be kind and reasonable; keep the language clean, and the tone civil. Comments from those who cannot comply will be deleted. Thank you.

5 Responses

  1. Queen of the Green seems to be the logical win bet but will offer little value and will probably find a way to lose. Wouldn’t doubles with the sixth and eighth races be less destructive to the bankroll?

  2. Maybe, maybe not.

    You have the ability to bet any pool you wish, to bet on, against, or not at all.

    It’s my job to best serve everyone the best way I know how.

    What is not appreciated is negative feedback for negative feedback’s sake.

    “Looks like it should win but probable will find a way to lose…” Isn’t this just a tad disingenuous???

    I look at video of turf races first, then decide.

    You don’t like the play? Fine, pick the winner of some other race. I don’t have time to respond to this nonsense.

  3. My comment is not intended to be disingenuous, merely a statement of fact based on my experiences wagering. You see, seven of ten wagers I make lose on average meaning that the plater I select ‘looks like it should win but probable will find a way to lose’.

    I didn’t write that I don’t like the play and your negative reply suggests to me that it would be best to not comment anymore on your selections.

  4. Facts based on empirical data are not facts they are opinion.

    You can comment all you want. You disagree, that’s fine, that’s what the game is about.

    I am serving two masters here, the player and the client, in this case, Tampa Bay Downs, which makes reasonable requests of me. I oblige them.

    Pride in craft wants me to pick a winner every day, preferably a value selection, every race, every day.

    That’s never going to happen and I’m not about to change the content style I feel is the most appropriate.

    Again, choose another race if you wish, or wait for post time to see whether the off odds are acceptable and represent value to you.

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