We’re locked into a Horse to Watch position in Friday’s second race which attracted an unusually small field for this level that looms a virtual match race for a pair that will vie for favoritism. Our belief is that the crowd will choose Summer Silence over Fermat and, frankly, would be justified to do so.
Summer Silence comes out of two strongly run races on dirt and hails from top connections with Christophe Clement tightening the girth on the Stone Farm homebred and giving regular partner Samy Camacho a return call.
He would be the deserving favorite after showing improvement going turf to dirt with first-time Lasix.
But that’s the angle we’re banking on here with Horse to Watch Fermat who suffered through two tough wide trips in both grass starts after being saddled with outside posts for each. Algorithms colt will appreciate the smaller field and mid-gate position as Arnaud Delacour adds blinkers for the transition.
The dark bay is better suited by pedigree to dirt and it’s important to note that this outfit is 22% effective with this surface switch, the clincher being the rider change to Hector Diaz; 4-for-12 for this barn at the meet through the last day of racing this week in addition to three other money finishes.
We are putting two lines through his two most recent starts. He lost serious ground throughout both and lost all chance last time at headstretch. Given that reality, the rider took care of him late when obviously beaten. Today’s changes, the wake-up call makes good sense.
We’re betting Fermat to win with no price restrictions, and making an exacta box with Summer Silence.
