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The Conscience of Thoroughbred Racing


There are few stakes to choose from one. Next week will be more significant, especially in the Midwest. So we’re including maiden allowance types and good-sized turf fields.

Here’s a betting grid for several tracks in addition to Del Mar posted on Friday . If so inclined, please return Saturday morning and by 10 am, you hopefully will find plays in New York, Kentucky and Florida. If not, it won’t be for lack of trying…


Early Double, Race 1

MOST PROBABLE WINNER: Munnings Muse (5-2)

VALUE BET: Munnings Muse at 5-2 or greater

EXOTICA: Exacta and Trifecta key box. Munnings first and second with Snicket (6-5) and Beautiful Karen (3-1). Early Double ‘Munnings’ with Ruse (6-1) and Vodka Lemonade (3-1).

Race 2


VALUE BET: Ruse to win at 4-1 or greater

EXOTICA: Exacta Box ‘Vodka’, Ruse and He’s a Lucky Devil (6-1). Exacta Box ‘Vodka’, Ruse and Danzingwiththestars (8-1). Dime Super Key: Vodka Lemonade with the three exacta runners above first and second, adding Arrowheart (12-1) and Straw Into Gold (7-2) third and fourth

Grade 3 Red Smith

MOST PROBABLE WINNER: Sadler’s Joy (8-5)

VALUE BET: Postulation (15-1) at 10-1 or greater

EXOTICA: Exacta Key Box Sadler’s Joy with Red Knight (5-2) and Ziyad (9-2). 50-Cent Trifecta Key Sadler’s Joy first with the three horses listed above, adding North Dakota (10-1) second and third.


Grade 3 Chilukki


VALUE BET: Grand Cru Classe (5-2) to win at early odds or greater

EXOTICA: Exacta and Trifecta Boxes: Finite, ‘Classe’ and Whoa Nellie (4-1). Finite, ‘Classe’ and Risky Mandate (5-1).


Grade 3 Native Diver



EXOTICA: Cold exacta 4-5, Midcourt over Extra Hope (3-1). We’re seeking a $7 return on a likely 1-2 shot.

Race 5 Maiden 2-Year-Olds, Turf, 1 Mile


VALUE BET: Endless Sunset (5-2) to win at early odds or greater

EXOTICA: Exacta box Mac Daddy Too and Endless Summer. Trifecta part wheel: Mac Daddy Too and Endless Summer first, second and third, and include By Moonlight (5-2) second and third.


Millions Turf Preview — Race 5

MOST PROBABLE WINNER: Muggsamatic (5-2)

VALUE BET: Galleon Mast (3-1) to win at 5-2 or greater

EXOTICA: Exacta Box Muggsamatic, ‘Galleon’ and Max K.O. (10-1). Exacta Box Muggsamatic, ‘Galleon’ and Second Mate (12-1). 50-Cent Trifecta Key ‘Muggs’ and “Galleon’ 1-2-3 with Max K.O. and Second Mate second and third.

Note that all suggested exotics plays at a minimums allowable; $1 exactas, 50-Cent trifectas, and Dime Supers. Straight plays are at $2 minimums. So, if you want to rough it up, have at it.

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7 Responses

  1. Seems early to be asking John, but have you looked into the KD futures? I believe the first Future’s Pool opens next weekend. Several of the more highly rated runners including Essential Quality seem to carry questionable sprint distance limitations in their DNA. Two that I hope to see offered are Known Agenda and Greatest Honor. Both names were on an also eligible for consideration mentioned by Patrick Reed at America’s Best Racing.

    Reed’s quote follows, “Known Agenda and Greatest Honour finished a head-bobbing 1-2 in a 1 1/8-mile maiden special weight at Aqueduct on Nov. 8, and are both offered at odds of 125-1 by William Hill. The pair separated themselves from the rest of the field and engaged in a throwdown duel through the stretch, neither backing down. That’s very encouraging for 2-year-olds racing at a distance that’s only an eighth of a mile shorter than the Kentucky Derby. Known Agenda, trained by Todd Pletcher, entered the race off of a runner-up finish to Highly Motivated (see above) at Belmont Park, and his pedigree is promising for further development as a son of Hall of Famer and top sire Curlin and out of a dam, Byrama, who won the 1 1/8-mile Vanity Handicap. Greatest Honour nearly broke through in his third career start after finishing third twice in seven-furlong races, at Saratoga and Belmont. He’s trained by the ultra-patient Shug McGaughey and definitely bears watching over the winter as a son of Tapit and out of Tiffany’s Honour, by Street Cry. Tiffany’s Honour is a daughter of 2007 Broodmare of the Year Better Than Honour, making her a half-sister to Belmont Stakes winners Rags to Riches and Jazil.” Reed mentioned a third horse, but I’ll have to search back via Google. Google by the way on the home page today posted a doodle of Benoit Mandelbrot in honor of his 96th birthday. Most have no clue. Who? Benoit Mandalbrot died ten years back and was an American-French-Polish mathematician. His influence on the world of investments and fractal math make Beyer’s numbers related to racing appear insignificant. A brilliant man. Still a major key to success in investing today. (link deleted here)
    Back to racing….see something, say something, right John? Just thought I would share the futures comments as we await your comments on tomorrow’s additional Saturday morning analysis. Sunny weather predicted in NY. Hi 60, low 40. Riders Up!

  2. McD, will finish this up in the morning but just to top section, I have no plans to look at the Derby Futures this early. I’ve seen some horses I like that are slow, and the fast ones I see not so much. Don’t know what I think about the Juvenile winner right now; have had other issues to think about.

    I have deleted the link above as my recent Spam issues might have breached in that way, coming from well meaning readers and friends. Will play safe instead of sorry on links unknown to me. I hear that sometimes these phishing expeditions like to latch on to YouTube video… a word to the wise there.


  3. Fractal Math time! I’m thinking sins of omission, inverse correlations, and that Benoit Mandelbrot’s 96th birthday would have been yesterday. Forget about Beyer. Pricci and Mandelbrot are how and where I get my numbers and key box counsel. Riders Up and a Thank You John. (I would be happy to send $20 via Pay Pal for all your effort. “Have at it” I will my friend. Can’t thank you enough for your sharing your skills.

  4. McD, thanks for the kind words and offer. Thinking about Pay Pal mode for Cigar Mile weekend, the last Grade 1 program in New York; do believe it’s first weekend in December.

    You mentioned Derby Futures in prior post. Next Saturday is ‘Stars of the Future II’ program at Churchill. Might pick up some useful information there… then Baffert will release three rocket ships and that’s all anyone will talk about until May… or later…the way things are going.

    JAN 20 can’t get here fast enough. Read something in ‘Failing New York Times’ this week: Four states, both Dakotas and two others in the middle of the country, have had more positive cases than any country in the world–think Luxembourg was fifth. How ignorant can people be, playing ‘mask politics’ in a world wide health crisis? Utter madness!

    Stay safe everyone!

  5. So basically,every ML favorite is the probable winner with the second choice as the ” Value” ! Big deal,that’s how some lazy ,regular handicappers in the former NYDN,used to Pick Them. Snooze Job !

  6. BITS,

    Do you know how many hours I put in to come up with those losers? I should snooze, not lose.

    Will be looking forward to your longshot plays next Saturday but do me one favor: Come out from behind the pseudonym before doing so, OK? And take enough care to show some command of the language and posting, talk about lazy…

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