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The Conscience of Thoroughbred Racing

TODAY’S BEST NFL UPSETS

Tampa Bay over Atlanta by 7

The hard-luck Bucs enter riding a 6-game ATS losing streak, but are
4-1 ITS in the past five games. They are also 10-1 ATS off a doubledigit loss when facing foes coming off an away game. That fits like a
mink-lined glove next to head coach Bruce Arians’ 16-3 SU and 14-5
ATS career mark when coming off a loss in which his team lost to the
spread by 9 or more points, including 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS as a dog
of more than 2 points. On the flip side, we’ve been along for the
ride in Atlanta’s recent surge but it’s time this week to exit the train
given the Falcons’ 0-7 ATS record as favorites with a losing record
when coming off consecutive underdog wins. They are also 2-12 ATS
at home after knocking off Carolina. FYI: from the Playbook Totals
Tipsheet Newsletter: the Bucs have now flown ‘Over’ the total
in each of their last eight games. In closing, let’s hand it off to THE
CLINCHER: Atlanta is 6-21 ATS as a home favorite of more
than 4 points when coming off consecutive wins, including
1-14 ATS against foes coming off an ATS loss.

Seattle over Philadelphia by 10

A game with plenty of playoff implications with Philly currently the
No. 8 seed in the NFC playoff race, and the Seahawks holding down
the No. 5 slot. The bad news for Philadelphia is just not the 17-10
loss they suffered here last week against New England in a game in
which they held a 10-0 lead, but the fact that they have struggled
tremendously getting back up off the mat at home when coming off
a home loss, going 1-10 SUATS the last eight years. They are also 1-9-
1 SU and 1-10 ATS as a favorite off a non-division home loss when
facing an opponent coming off a win. Meanwhile, Seattle needed
its Bye Week following consecutive overtime wins the previous two
contests. The good news is the Seahawks are 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS in
their last ten away games at NFC East sites – including 7-1 SUATS
behind QB Russell Wilson. With Wilson 18-4-1 ATS as an NFL dog
when coming off a win, we wrap it all up with an outright WIN.

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