— JAMES W MURPHY STAKES — Race 10 —
The Skinny: Can’t analyze this turf route without thinking about the effects of the raceday use of the diuretic Lasix. Since Lasix was added, Riot House is 2-for-2 for Danny Gargan. When analyzing Ready to Purrform, there’s no getting away from the fact Brad Cox is 39% effective with first-Lasix runners. And she ran as fast on turf at 2 as most of these have run at 3.
Ticket Toppers: Ready to Purrform (5-2), Riot House (4-1)
Early-Line Win Value: Betting Riot House to win at 3-1 or greater
Exotica: Exacta box ticket toppers with price shot Uncaptured Spirit.Key both ticket toppers first in exactas and trifectas with each other and money horses Uncaptured Spirit (12-1), Shake Em Loose (8-1), Wow Whata Summer (15-1) and Joe (3-1). Key both ticket toppers first with all listed runners below in superfectas.
SIR BARTON STAKES Race 11
The Skinny: Early Voting isn’t the only runner who skipped the Derby in favor of Preakness weekend. And legendary Coach Lukas didn’t opt for the second jewel, as did Early Voting, but took the softer spot with the fastest runner, pole position, and Secret Oath’s jockey, Luis Saez. There are several forward-looking rivals but they will have to progress significantly to challenge the favorite.
Ticket Toppers: Ethereal Road (3-1)
Early-Line Win Value: Betting Ruggs (10-1) t win at 9-1 or greater
Exotica: Exacta key-box Ethereal Road with Ruggs, Addison Pour (15-1), Mr. Jefferson (6-1), Unikee (4-1) and B Dawk (5-2). Trifecta and Superfecta key Ethereal Road first with the rivals above and adding Brooklyn Diamonds (10-1) to the super-exotics money mix.
JIM MC KAY TURF SPRINT STAKES Race 12
The Skinny: So interesting how Brian Lynch manages Carotari (9-5). He was dominant coming off a layup last time at Gulfstream Park and was freshened yet again waiting for today’s similar spot. Looks to extend his record under these dynamics for 8-for-21. Smokin Jay made up good ground along the fence in his latest.
Ticket Toppers: Carotari
Early-Line Win Value: Taking Smokin Jay (6-1) to win at 6-1 or greater
Exotica: Key-Boxing Carotari first and second in exactas and trifectas with Smokin Jay, Grateful Bred (6-1) [2-for-2 Pimlico, 5-for-10 at the trip] and Mr. Hustle (10-1). Superfecta key Carotari first with the three contenders above and adding Saver Scents [Maker-Irad] and Hollis [key-race three wins] to the super-exotics mix.
PREAKNESS – 147 Race 13
The Skinny: Traditionally formful second jewel should follow that pattern here. Epicenter (6-5) still not has not taken a backward step; benefits from fresh Derby/short rest return. Early Voting (7-2) is the lone speed and can carry it this far. Secret Oath (9-2) is a tough throw-back to the past; she doesn’t grind she explodes past rivals; of course this is tougher. Speaking of which, is there any tougher than Simplification (6-1)? Can trip out with Johnny; actually changed leads in the Derby, a plus.
Ticket Toppers: Epicenter, Early Voting, Secret Oath, Simplification
Early-Line Win Value: Simplification at 7-1 or greater
Exotica: Key Epicenter first and second in exactas and trifectas with rivals list above. Key Epicenter first in Superfecta, adding price shot Skippylongstocking (20-1) to the super-exotics mix.