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The Conscience of Thoroughbred Racing


JAMES W MURPHY STAKES     —     Race 10 —

The Skinny:  Can’t analyze this turf route without thinking about the effects of the raceday use of the diuretic Lasix. Since Lasix was added, Riot House is 2-for-2 for Danny Gargan. When analyzing Ready to Purrform, there’s no getting away from the fact Brad Cox is 39% effective with first-Lasix runners. And she ran as fast on turf at 2 as most of these have run at 3.

Ticket Toppers: Ready to Purrform (5-2), Riot House (4-1)

Early-Line Win Value: Betting Riot House to win at 3-1 or greater

Exotica: Exacta box ticket toppers with price shot Uncaptured Spirit.Key both ticket toppers first in exactas and trifectas with each other and money horses Uncaptured Spirit (12-1), Shake Em Loose (8-1), Wow Whata Summer (15-1) and Joe (3-1). Key both ticket toppers first with all listed runners below in superfectas.

SIR BARTON STAKES                                        Race 11

The Skinny:   Early Voting isn’t the only runner who skipped the Derby in favor of Preakness weekend. And legendary Coach Lukas didn’t opt for the second jewel, as did Early Voting, but took the softer spot with the fastest runner, pole position, and Secret Oath’s jockey, Luis Saez. There are several forward-looking rivals but they will have to progress significantly to challenge the favorite.

Ticket Toppers: Ethereal Road (3-1)

Early-Line Win Value:  Betting Ruggs (10-1) t win at 9-1 or greater

Exotica: Exacta key-box Ethereal Road with Ruggs, Addison Pour (15-1), Mr. Jefferson (6-1), Unikee (4-1) and B Dawk (5-2). Trifecta and Superfecta key Ethereal Road first with the rivals above and adding Brooklyn Diamonds (10-1) to the super-exotics money mix.

JIM MC KAY TURF SPRINT STAKES              Race 12

The Skinny:  So interesting how Brian Lynch manages Carotari (9-5). He was dominant coming off a layup last time at Gulfstream Park and was freshened yet again waiting for today’s similar spot. Looks to extend his record under these dynamics for 8-for-21. Smokin Jay made up good ground along the fence in his latest.

Ticket Toppers:  Carotari

Early-Line Win Value: Taking Smokin Jay (6-1) to win at 6-1 or greater

Exotica: Key-Boxing Carotari first and second in exactas and trifectas with Smokin Jay, Grateful Bred (6-1) [2-for-2 Pimlico, 5-for-10 at the trip] and Mr. Hustle (10-1). Superfecta key Carotari first with the three contenders above and adding Saver Scents [Maker-Irad] and Hollis [key-race three wins] to the super-exotics mix.

PREAKNESS – 147                                Race 13            

The Skinny:  Traditionally formful second jewel should follow that pattern here. Epicenter (6-5) still not has not taken a backward step; benefits from fresh Derby/short rest return. Early Voting (7-2) is the lone speed and can carry it this far. Secret Oath (9-2) is a tough throw-back to the past; she doesn’t grind she explodes past rivals; of course this is tougher. Speaking of which, is there any tougher than Simplification (6-1)? Can trip out with Johnny; actually changed leads in the Derby, a plus.

Ticket Toppers:  Epicenter, Early Voting, Secret Oath, Simplification

Early-Line Win Value:  Simplification at 7-1 or greater

Exotica: Key Epicenter first and second in exactas and trifectas with rivals list above. Key Epicenter first in Superfecta, adding price shot Skippylongstocking (20-1) to the super-exotics mix.

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7 Responses

  1. Black Eyed Susan- Preakness $$ DD tells me 8-54-1 2 plus 5-8 4- 1 2 9 which is what I chose to bet.Still,I prefer the 5 for value.Hit ,very well,I might add , Belmont s last race s Exacta @ $ 62 x….. Good Friday to all !

    1. Got my Derby $ back plus more.Hit gimmicks plus my main pic to WP….but got to admit that was upset when the filly was bothered,squeezed at the start. She could have won if she had a better trip and not stuck last and then trying to close wide..This ” ain’t no Nascar” !Anyway,Epicenter needs a rest.Watching D.Lucas I always think about his big glory days in the 80 s,esp 84-85.Great horse man with fillies,mares !

    1. The top four favorites are known to everyone, relatively small field, not that unusual, in my view…

    2. What are you trying to insinuate ? Me copying someone else’ s picks ? The figs,numbers are there. Cannot go against oneself. With the heat,and probable fast footing,on this Pimlico track cannot rely on anything else like a closer coming out of nowhere,,,unless there s a suicidal pace.. Once you scratch the three,four horses off that seem to be outclassed you re only left with the predictable ones. We go from 20 horses to 9,so far. Hoping for a good exciting race and Not the first three choices coming in according to their odds.. Small field,less choices and probable values.

  2. The Preakness.
    1. Simplification- goes outside to the rail. Has ran as fast as Epicenter except instead of 4/5 you get 6-1. Beaten 33/4 lengths in derby, different trip, different result.
    2. Secret Oath- With the 5 pound break in the weights she has run faster than anyone in the field three times. This is a filly on 2 weeks rest. She may get late.
    3. Epicenter- The one to beat.
    Tidbit, The last time the top 2 favorite’s (Epicenter and Early Voting) came first and second in the Preakness was Sunday Silence and Easy Goer. Nuff said.
    Good luck to all and let’s go get the bad guys.

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