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The Conscience of Thoroughbred Racing

GO JUMP INTO LAKE FANTASY

It’s a deep field loaded with talent and we’re hoping a vulnerable early line favorite in Venetian Harbor (2-1). If she is a SoCal “freak” in the mold of a Songbird, she’ll win. But I need to see her do it in a big field outside of her home state, plus there’s a lot of speed to hound her at various stages.

British Idiom (5-2) is the better of the two favorites, Her style fits this race and she is more forward looking given it’s her second start off a layup and owns an excellent turn of foot. Her wide draw may turn out to be a saving grace in this pace loaded group. She is the most likely winner.

Had the aggressive Paco Lopez been able to re-ride Swiss Skydiver (6-1), I would say she would be more likely. She is on an excellent Thoro Graph line, is fast enough, has laudably versatile style and an inside draw that could provide the ideal trip. And the price should be fair.

But it’s Lake Avenue (15-1) who interests me most. I could not believe that Bill Mott would ship her north to New York from Payson Park for her season’s debut when she was used up on the pace and tired badly as if short of condition.

I was convinced that was true when she reappeared quickly three weeks later in the Gulfstream Park Oaks where she was forced to chase the pace on the speed kind oval and ground her way to a game show finish. Now she should be set. Two short breezes since indicate Mott wants her sharp now.

We’ll take Lake Avenue straight at half her early line and make a three horse exacta box including Swiss Skydiver and British Idiom.

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3 Responses

  1. Maybe I attended to many Jet games over in Jersey, and but I am reading and hearing “Defense, Defense” in the back of my mindset. I also “like” Lake Ave for the Win today recalling your mentioning a “like” for Venetian Harbor and Lake Ave in the Oaks futures pools. Thinking that Bill Mott was always targeting the first Saturday in May all along, it just evolved that a different race was carded. Any hoot John, I am adding in an Indulto SF wagert with Bill Mott’s charge first and second, surrounded by Swiss, Brit, and Venetian for my foursome.

    Pricci Foursome on Deck. Pricci’s up first. Fore!!!

    P.S. Please excuse my extended comment line on Wednesday’s FRA John. I just find it disturbing that our Federal Reserve has turned to socialism by breaking their own congressional agreed regulations to protect so many recently downgraded BBB rated credit risk companies. Looks like Powell caved. The insolvency downgrades mind you were the result of CEO’s using their companies as ATM’s over the lsast several years. Financial Enginnering Willie Sutton style. Very little money was put back into the protection of their workers or R & D. for future growth.

    The CEO’s pockets are now all lined well with silver, the rank and file head for the unemployment lines, and the children of all tax payers are now on the hook for all of it. Third time in this century alone. The Cat and Mouse Partnership warned of by Brothers Grimm over one hundred years ago in a children’s fable continues. Sad is all. Servis and Navarro small change compared to the rest of what goes on.

    Now back to racing. Thank you for the diversion from the madness John.

  2. With TJ also waving the caution flag on Venetian Harbor, I am downshifting to tri tickets using Cox, McPeek and Mott. KB Ex on Mott as well. That’s kind of like holding three aces, and adding in a pair of kings with Pricci and TJ on my tickets. You guys do this stuff for a living and I put my trust in your learned “Ah crap Homer” experience. Must good bets do what? If the SF comes in, I can always blame the loss on not believing in Indulto. Lol. Stocks and bonds are a much easier game, right Homer?

  3. McD, I might be on my way to the poor house, ignoring the two fastest fillies on the Thoro-Graph scale, the favorite and the “other Mott,” Harvey’s Lil Girl. This is why they run races; it’s all about the decisions we make beforehand.

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