It’s a deep field loaded with talent and we’re hoping a vulnerable early line favorite in Venetian Harbor (2-1). If she is a SoCal “freak” in the mold of a Songbird, she’ll win. But I need to see her do it in a big field outside of her home state, plus there’s a lot of speed to hound her at various stages.
British Idiom (5-2) is the better of the two favorites, Her style fits this race and she is more forward looking given it’s her second start off a layup and owns an excellent turn of foot. Her wide draw may turn out to be a saving grace in this pace loaded group. She is the most likely winner.
Had the aggressive Paco Lopez been able to re-ride Swiss Skydiver (6-1), I would say she would be more likely. She is on an excellent Thoro Graph line, is fast enough, has laudably versatile style and an inside draw that could provide the ideal trip. And the price should be fair.
But it’s Lake Avenue (15-1) who interests me most. I could not believe that Bill Mott would ship her north to New York from Payson Park for her season’s debut when she was used up on the pace and tired badly as if short of condition.
I was convinced that was true when she reappeared quickly three weeks later in the Gulfstream Park Oaks where she was forced to chase the pace on the speed kind oval and ground her way to a game show finish. Now she should be set. Two short breezes since indicate Mott wants her sharp now.
We’ll take Lake Avenue straight at half her early line and make a three horse exacta box including Swiss Skydiver and British Idiom.