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TOP WEEK 4 COLLEGE UPSETS

SMU over TCU by 3

We told you about this one earlier in the season, where SMU head
coach Sonny Dykes stated that his Mustangs would be ready to
challenge and perhaps dethrone TCU in this year’s battle for control
of the hearts, minds and dollars spent on team jerseys by fans in the
Dallas-Fort Worth area. Since the Ponies have lost the last five against
the Horned Frogs by margins of 30, 20, 30, 19, and 56 points, few will
give SMU a chance in this latest installment of the Alphabet War. We
disagree, noting that the Mustangs’ 3-0 SUATS start to the season is
no accident, not with them winning the stat battle by an average
of 200 YPG. In fact, they’re the only team to outgain North Texas in
the Mean Green’s last 15 overall regular season games. Most of this
will fall on deaf ears since TCU walloped SMU last year, 42-17, and
the Frogs return home off a convincing road win over Purdue where
they held the highly-productive Purdue offense to just 256 total
yards and 13 points. The big question this afternoon is whether a TCU
defense that entered the season ranked No. 111 in overall returning
Production can summon up another impressive performance against
an SMU air-raid attack that’s averaging 550 YPG. The ATS archives say
no, informing us that the Horned Frogs have cashed only one ticket
in the last six meetings, plus they’re just 3-7 ATS when coming off
a SU away victory. We prefer SMU’s recent 5-0 ATS dog run when
playing off a win, a number that sets the table for THE CLINCHER:
SMU head coach Sonny Dykes is 7-2 SU and 8-0-1 ATS in his
career when coming off consecutive SUATS wins.

SAN DIEGO STATE over Utah State by 8

You’re a long way from Stony Brook, Mr. Andersen. Back for his
second term with Utah State, head coach Gary Andersen must have
thought his Aggies were playing in The Matrix after they destroyed
SBU to the tune of 717 yards and 62 points. He’ll be in for a reality
check, though, when USU ventures to San Diego to challenge a
Rocky Long stop-unit that’s giving up just 248 yards and 8 points per
game. And truth be told, the Aggies allowed 579 yards to the only
FBS foe they’ve faced this season, Wake Forest. A random sweep of
our database tells us the wrong team may be favored here. Not only
are the unbeaten Aztecs 3-0 SUATS in this series of late, they’ve
also pitched a perfect 7-0 ATS no-hitter as dogs of 4 or more points
versus a conference foe off back-to-back SU wins. More support for
SDSU comes from its recent 4-0 SUATS run as a home dog and the
visitors’ unfortunate 0-5 ATS slide versus .700 or greater opponents.
If you need more fuel, see Marc’s “Can’t Win For Losing You”
BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW article on page 2. And if that’s not enough,
then we strongly recommend you absorb THE CLINCHER: Aztecs
coach Rocky Long is 12-1 ATS in his career as a conference dog
when coming off consecutive SUATS wins.

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