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The Conscience of Thoroughbred Racing


We opted for a dirt race to conclude the Friday card for a couple of reasons; one, a rare opportunity to gain value on an Antonio Gallardo ridden charge and because, despite the connections, don’t believe the early line favorite from the powerful Bennett barn is all that.

While it’s true that Town Classic (5-2) exits in rapidly run heat and came back to blow out brilliantly for this, that race was at 7 furlongs and while he cruised in under the wire in that placing, he never was a true win threat in our opinion and now is turning back to a trip not as appropriate as his last.

The move up to the $32K level for Small Fortune (5-1) is a sign of confidence from another leading barn in Oldsmar, that or Georgina Baxter. And unlike the early line favorite, he owns a (16) 5-2-0 slate and the trip and just loves the footing here as his (3) 2-1-0 record indicates.

But take a look at the Tampa Bay Today Video on our homepage and you decide if you think Town Classic is worthy of a short price at post time. Check out RACE 5, MAR 25 to see if you agree. We’re going to stick with a Horse for Course speedster who has a real chance to be the third favorite.

Taking Small Fortune to win at 3-1 or greater and will key box exactas with the likely favorite and another sharp Horse for Course, Zorb (3-1).

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14 Responses

  1. At Gulfstream yesterday only two betting favorites won from the eleven races carded. Do the majority of bettors actually read the past performances? Appears that the betting favorite s/be tossed along with the second favorite.

  2. Lots of bettors do what you suggest already, always looking for double digits, which is fine. But the results you cite don’t prove anything; today there could be eight favorites. It’s random, cyclical, right. Ever year, winning faves nationwide are 30-34%. It averages out…

    1. Its not only for America races,entire world racing favt strike rate would be between 28%-32% approxmatley

  3. 5,6,9/5,6,9/5,6,9/1,3,4,7
    Just for the fun of it. Going “Indulto” today. Riders Up!
    Six feet safe or risk six feet under. Stay safe.

  4. Mr. Pricci: If, as you write, ‘lots of bettors are looking for double-digits’ then the favorite would be 5-1. Yesterday three favorites finished dead last and one next to last. The odds on the vast majority of favorites were odds-on (even money or less, Alice). Blow a whistle when five favorites win on a given day; forget eight winning!

    BTW, taping the entries to the wall and throwing a dart is showing promise.

  5. Finally! My choices are generally underlays at post time, not this one, really surprised. Pleasantly!

  6. Speaking of “Wendell”, one handicapper is calling for Wendell at a price at Oaklawn tomorrow: I added a space in the h ^ttps below hoping the URL might stick with this comment. They quite often drop off when posting. Another Foster for Wendell please Barkeep. I’ll have a Guinness and put them both on Pricci’s tab.


  7. Bro your handicapping is very good for tampa bay down races I also think like same way for indian races I dnt have much grip on America races but your information is very good

    1. Thanks King and welcome aboard. All I can say is that we make a concerted effort anytime we put on name on it. Been at this for nearly a half century and the game sure keeps you humble.

  8. Mr. Pricci: Ya sure you didn’t really tape the PP’s to the wall and toss a dart to come up with Small Fortune?

    McD: Already received an email from a dude about Wendell Fong. I don’t ‘cap Oaklawn nor do I bet names. You bet ’em confident that I won’t.

  9. I have a tough time with Oaklawn; don’t care for how races develop and frankly don’t have a lot of success but with promised dry footing, we’ll try to knock it out of the park on Saturday.

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