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The Conscience of Thoroughbred Racing

ON BEING A REBEL

Can’t get too fancy in a seven-horse REBEL STAKES where the favorites appear to be the right horses. I want to see Nadal (5-2) go two turns on a wet track in against talented rivals before accepting a hyped highly likely odds-on.

Taking Basin to win at 5-2 or greater, an exacta box with the favorite and adding Three Technique (7-2) and Silver Prospector (7-2) to the exotics mix. Just taking what I am given here.

The JACK RUBY STAKES at Turfway this evening is wide open, lending itself nicely to potential vertical value even if some of the favorites top the ticket. We’re doing it thusly:

A. Invader (3-1), Halo Again (8-1)

B. The Stiff (12-1), Finnick The Fierce (6-1)

C. Fancy Liquor (8-1), Field Pass (7-2)

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19 Responses

  1. For me it is Indulto time John. Basin on top of the other three mixed in an SF wager, and a single ex box with basin and three tech. I also wagered in pool one of the futures on on basin and three tech to win, for the fun of it a one dollar ex box. Should that ex bet ever come in, I won’t care how high the cost of Scott’s thousand sheets per roll rises. Lol. Looked in a few stores today only to share with the neighbors. None to be found. A few sure bets in life besides death and taxes. , We are always going to have trash to recycle, and we will always be in need of toilet paper, beans, and beer. The last three items, when you think about it, we can only rent. Never enough you see. Please Sir, may we have more? Riders Up.

  2. McD,
    I commend both the spirit and thrift of your wager, but we’ll have to discuss the qualifiers for such strategies when trying to “bet a little to win a lot.”

    Baffert did it again with an odds-on runner who didn’t tire from its early fire. Did not have the longshot underneath who may well improve if more than a mudlark.

  3. This is true re the second horse who I looked at, figured he was live, but I try to make decisions not made on hunches. I leave hunch betting to Presidents.

    But you know, it’s been quite the week and sometimes I run out of racetrack and need to prioritize. So, in the future, the A’s are horses I bet to win or as key to verticals. B’s are horses that can win which I most often use in exacta boxes. C’s are, for the most part, vertical fillers that can include favorites we’re trying to beat.

    And I’m going to always strive for making the least expensive sequence, especially these days… Those with larger bankrolls can take a 50-Cent bet as many times as they want.

    Agree Excession may be more than a mudlark. I never dismiss Asmussen out of hand; his horses run too good for me to do that. But I won’t guess at it…

    In the case of the Rebel, the play was written in a straight forward manner…it was wrong, but not lacking in pre-posting handicapping research.

  4. been winning more lately on claiming races for older.
    just sayin in case you want some plays from me once in a while.

    no more harness for me after seeing all the crooks they’re rounding up in that game, might just be the tip of the iceberg.

  5. I liked Basin too and bet him, very disappointed in how he ran, part of my reasoning with not wanting to be 3 yos any more at this this time.

    too many form swings for me.
    sticking to older runners.
    avoiding maidens entirely, never know what a FTS will do, huge improvements also hard to predict for me.

  6. He ran well considering the horrible between-horses throughout trip, I thought . I’m not giving up. He might not be a Derby winner but he’s a good horse I believe…

  7. Just a thought regarding the win and in the money percentages of the super trainer barns going forward. Wondering if their favored vets may be altering their methods and operations given all the expected increased oversight

  8. That is the fear McD, that form will be turned on its head.

    While two trainers made headlines, to think the problem is limited to those to men if, of course, completely unrealistic.

    ‘Juicing’ puts horses and jockeys in dangers, more important than a horseplayer’s bankroll. But if the remaining cheaters, juice selectively, eventually–like not paying serious attention to health officials–horseplayers will become ex-horseplayers.

    If possible, #HIA2019Now

  9. Agree with the primary focus towards safety first John. Only hoping all of this recent Southern District exposure leads to a much safer and much cleaner sport. I guess we will learn shortly who the trainers with the cleanest sheets are.

    Am I too look for you “if possible” on twitter for #HIA2019Now? Not having any luck in finding.
    “Your search – #HIA2019Now – did not match any documents.” Thanks.

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