In our never ending search for value, we chose one of the most wide open races we’ve seen all year, the seventh from Tampa Bay to start the racing week in Oldsmar.
This is a starter allowances on grass going one mile on the Tampa turf; 10 were entered overnight and we feel safe leaving only two without a chance to score.
There just are so many class moves, surface switches, barn changes, coming at you from so many directions, and even a few making turf debuts that have license here.
The most probable winners are favorite Prairie (3-1), getting undeniable class relief, and fast working, course and trip loving Dream Liner (9-2), who in addition gets a switch to Daniel Centeno.
While jockeys can tend to overthink races in which PPs indicate there’s much speed signed on, there appears to much in here that a solid pace will be set, playing into the hooves of class dropper J Beresford Tipton (6-1) who is returning to the white hot Arnaud Delacour shed for this campaign.
While he’s not won here, he lost a head-bobber by a nose two seasons back following a too-late between horses late run and was probably best: See Tampa Bay Downs video, DEC 4, 2020, Race 5.
The clinchers are the fact that Team Valor, which owns many top horses, has not given up on the gelded 6-year-old and his lifetime best figure was earned on this surface. Angel Suarez, who won on him two back, reunites.
We’re making a three-horse exacta box and betting J Beresford Tipton to win at 5-1 or greater.