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The Conscience of Thoroughbred Racing

RESULT REPORT: TOTE BUSTERS BETTING ANALYSIS FOR BREEDERS’ CUP FRIDAY

BREEDERS’ CUP 2020      FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 6

JUVENILE TURF SPRINT

MOST PROBABLE WINNER:   GOLDEN PAL (8-5)

VALUE WAGER:  UBETTABELIEVEIT (20-1) to win at 15-1 or greater

EXOTICA: $1 Exacta key-box Golden Pal with Ubettabelieveit and Into the Sunrise. $1 Exacta Golden Pal first with Ubettabelieveit and Into the Sunrise. 50-Cent Trifecta Key Golden Pal first over Ubettabelieveit, Into the Sunrise and Lipizzaner (20-1).

JUVENILE TURF

MOST PROBABLE WINNER:   MUTASAABEQ (5-1)

VALUE WAGER:  NEW MANDATE (12-1) to win at 10-1 or greater

EXOTICA:  $1 Exacta box Mutasaabeq, New Mandate and Battleground. $1 Exacta and Dime Super Key Mutasaabeq and New Mandate first over Cadillac (6-1), Mutassabeq, Outadore (8-1), Battleground, Gretsky the Great (8-1) and The Lir Jet (20-1)

JUVENILE FILLIES

MOST PROBABLE WINNER:   DAYOUTOFTHEOFFICE (5-2)

VALUE WAGER:   VEQUIST (8-1) to win at 5-1 or greater

EXOTICA:  $2 exacta box Dayoutoftheoffice and Vequist. 50-CENT Trifecta Wheel Dayoutoftheoffice and Vequist first and second with ALL, and Dayoutoftheoffice and Vequist first and third with ALL second. Dime Super Key Dayoutoftheoffice with ALL second, third and fourth.

JUVENILE FILLIES TURF

MOST PROBABLE WINNER:  AUNT PEARL (3-1)

VALUE WAGER:  MISS AMULET (12-1) to win at 10-1 or greater

EXOTICA:  $2 exacta box Aunt Pearl, Miss Amulet and Campanelle (4-1). 50-Cent Tri Wheel Aunt Pearl, Miss Amulet and Campanelle first with each other second and third, adding Plum Ali (4-1) and Spanish Love Affair (15-1) second and third.

JUVENILE

MOST PROBABLE WINNER:  JACKIE’S WARRIOR (7-5)

VALUE WAGER:  SITTIN ON GO (12-1) to win at 10-1 or greater

EXOTICA: $1 Exacta key-box Jackie’s Warrior and Reinvestment Risk with each other, Essential Quality (4-1) and Sittin On Go (12-1). Dime Super Key Jackie’s Warrior over Sittin On Go, Reinvestment Risk, Essential Quality, Keepmeinmind (30-1) and Rombauer (15-1).

Saturday Analysis available for emailing at 9 AM tomorrow, $20. If interested, remit to [email protected] . Remember to include your email address.

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⚠ Before you comment

Our staff likes nothing better than to engage with the HRI Faithful and provide a forum for interaction on horseracing and sports. In that spirit, please be kind and reasonable; keep the language clean, and the tone civil. Comments from those who cannot comply will be deleted. Thank you.

25 Responses

  1. My personal results today:
    Number of Bets 11
    Win Percentage 18.18%
    ROI 1.95
    Wagered $36.00
    Payoff $106.10
    Profit $70.10

    Thanks John.

  2. How can it be a good day, John, as your selections were posted at 5:11pm, Nov 6th, when most of the races were completed? Pls. let us know the ADW that takes your wagers after the races are concluded. Send $20 for today’s selections?????

    1. Right, and they were, and today’s will be, emailed to you by 9 am. This announcement was made a week in advance.

      The betting advice you get on TV, and from mainstream racing media, is from analysts that are paid by their companies for their time and services. I took a buyout from Newsday in 1996 and no longer had a means of support until 11 years later when HRI was founded.

      Today, as a freelancer who was hurt by Covid advertising pull-backs, I am not compensated but will support my family by any means necessary.

      Since we don’t know each other, here’s the 411, and you can ask anyone who says they knows me well. This job was never about money for me. But I did express some appreciation for an occasional job well done.

      This is a small site that during the first four months of this year still averaged between 200,000 and 250,000 page views per month.

      The two most popular features historically have been the Free Race Analysis and Latest Columns posted from different sources, not only mine.

      In the Iroquois Stakes on the Empire Showcase Day program from Belmont Park, we spelled out a Dime Super play–that called for a $3.60 investment–or thereabouts–it won returned over $2K. The 50-cent trifecta paid about $900, etc.

      One reader, one, wrote to say thank you.

      I reasoned that if horseplayers are more than willing to take but can’t extend the courtesy of an acknowledgment, I decided that I will be compensated for the esoteric portions of my research. If readers find it’s not worth it, they certainly are entitled to that.

      But on big race days, or when high-profile races rate to attract very high handle figures, I will be paid for a half-century worth of experience. To those who disagree, there’s plenty of free opinions and data out there.

      I keep this site going to try to make a difference for a pastime that’s given me a living and a lifestyle. I’ve met great people, and horsemen that I consider either friends or great acquaintances are my heroes.

      Health issues since college did not allow me to work on the backside as my body could not handle a 24/7/365 work experience.

      Further, looking at superior horseflesh is thrilling, often leaving me in awe still. So I try to give back in some small way.

      I had two staffers who quit because they don’t believe the game will ever develop the will to clean itself up. They may be right, but I’m going to keep trying by using my voice. It’s who I am, it’s what I do.

      However, on the betting side, this is pari-mutuels, french for “between us.” We all make more money when we occasionally can beat the crowd.

      I work too hard to learn what I learn, know what I know, and I will be damned if my efforts are not worthy of a simple, occasional thanks… The secret sauce comes at a price.

      1. John, it has become clear that the selections you posted Late Friday were intended as a demonstration of your success on the initial Breeders Cup Day. Being only a periodic visitor to your site, it was unclear as to what your intent was and it appeared as if your were “past posting” in and effort to encourage subcriptions to your selection service.

        I now understand that it was not the case. I apologize as my comments may have been misguided. I take no exception to your efforts to offer selections for a fee. That is the way in a capitalistic society.

        I enjoy your commentaries and support your efforts to provide your perspective. I do appreciate.

        1. Thank you Mr. McDermott and for correcting the message, no need to apologize.

          Of course I was proud of Friday’s research, did want to spur sales for Saturday, and please note we posted Saturday as well.

          Three plays were enough for me to make a small profit, thanks to F & M Turf exacta, Monomoy Girl topped superfecta, and another filly, Tarnawa, in the Turf. In the overall, should have done a bit better.

          At the moment, there is no intention to sell the Tote Busters product except on big event programs; Pegasus, Florida Derby, Arkansas, Louisiana and the like. Probably next big product will be Cigar Mile/Claiming Crown weekend next month.

          Results will be posted however the days turn out. Glad you enjoy the commentary, thanks…

  3. Thomas, How do you come up with 5:11pm? I received John’s selections for yesterday’s Cup races at 8:41am. John had given out two wins, and a nice paying reverse exacta that I also played off of to cash out on an added fifty cent trifecta. He came very close to a major score in an additional race with one of his three price shots selections finishing third–had that runner only finished second, I would still be counting my winnings. Sweet day. I often post when I lose by the way, but yesterday was a good day.

  4. McD, thanks for your support. Now, just as I have always stated, the analysis lends itself to the players’ input as well.

    We were fortunate in the very first race that featured a horse that most agreed was the safest best on the Friday card, Golden Pal. We also indicated that the value straight play was Euro shipper Ubettabelieveit, who lost a place photo behind the favorite at 26-1.

    In the Tote Busters product, we recommended a 50-Cent Trifecta key using all price shots below, Lippazaner (20-1 ML) and Into the Sunrise (15-1). When I saw the odds and after watching the horses on the track, the little voice inside my head said “don’t get split.”

    Accordingly, we took Dime Supers using ALL for second and third, with our value play second and third with the other two price horses at the end. We got lucky. Cowan (All) split the favorite and our Value Bet, and Lippazaner fortunately won a photo for 4th. Believe the wager cost me $6.60. Dime Super paid $281.

    If only I had made the exact same play behind Aunt Pearl later on; Dime Super paid… never mind.

    1. The 5:11p time that Thomas Mcdermott is referring to is when John posted the results of his BC Day 1 plays in “Free Race Selections.” Obviously, they were available to Tote Busters buyers some 9 1/2 hours before then. Congratulations for some nice prices !!!

      John, you are correct in noting that we are often “late to the party” or complete no-shows when complimenting the work that is well done. Most of us are more likely to complain about a losing selection than to say thanks for the winners. Sadly, we’ve largely become a society of grouches. Give us something to belly-ache about and we seem to be content with life in the 21st Century. Hopefully, this trend will be reversed, in my remaining years, although it’s looking very doubtful.

      Further, I need no convincing (nor do most of the HRI Faithful) regarding your ability to handicap winners and provide expert racing commentary. From Newsday to Harvey Pack’s Paddock Club at Saratoga right through to HRI and a flat-bet profit over many years with the daily selection (a seemingly impossible feat), you’ve accomplished an enviable record.

      I’m sitting out the BC this weekend in favor of handling some long overdue personal items. Otherwise, I would have been pleased to ante-up for the selections of a truly outstanding professional that takes great pride in his field. Lots of good wishes to you in Lexington, KY today.

      1. I appreciate your input and your reasoning and hope that whatever is keeping you from enjoying the Breeders’ Cup races works out well for you. However, please understand that, for me, it’s more about the courtesy of a thank you.

        My ego is plenty healthy and doesn’t need reinforcement. And maybe I’m a responsible as the next guy in that my rhetoric can be inflammatory but it’s based more on a search for facts, not strictly along ideological lines.

        I’m sure many find this hard to believe but I can admit when I’m wrong. I’m a horseplayer and this game can humble kings. The best anyone can expect over time is to be wrong every two out of three. Good luck on your personal missions today.

    2. Interesting repartee about picks,when they are made,their success and/or misses by the so called “pros” who,by the way, are not created equally,from untrustworthy kiddie sites to former hockey guys,baseball guys now paid ” xperts” maybe for the sole reason that they once were famous,whatever that means since today everyone seems to a personality as long as they have a microphone or camera in front of their nose. I usually try to get a consensus,almost an eternal hobby with horseracing,but the once glorious handicappers are no longer around or visible. Names like Pricci,Liftin are only a rare example as too many sportsites try to waste time,space with useless props.Buyer beware esp.with those ” guarantees” ( ahahah !) that if they fail to give you a winner ” You’ll get ” Free picks for the year,eternity or which ever be they- re to sell to the clueless person. Cannot form any consensus so I rely on my ignorance, knowledge,mathematical intuition without paying attention to run of the mill mouthpieces whose main objective remains to kill time between the ever longer commercials and info ads. Seriously, JP seems to be,don’t t want to say the Only one because I do not know,but definitely a reliable conoscente ( cognoscente) of this intriguing,humbling betting sport ( of kings).We brag when we hit and stay quiet,or lie,when we fail.It happens with most ” sports pickers”.It is up to us,individually,to sincerely admit when we are getting out of hand,losing $ in a bitter,consistent way.For those( few) who keep on staying on the positive course let us congratulate them,us, for their discipline,diligence and ability to get which could be more arduous than picking which races to bet and which number and combinations. Ps: These animals are not machines and ,as it has been noticed, anyone of the favorites could have any excuse to fail to win or run well while only having One Shot to get the rewards for themselves and their connections putting extra pressure on the jockeys’ and trainers reputation.But the gallant,graceful,muscular horse remains the reason why we care about the sport,even when we are not betting and just admire them all.

  5. Saturday November 7, 2020

    4th race-#9 Bell’s the one (6-1) KEY WITH 1,2,8

    5th race-7 and 3 with the 4,5,14

    6th race-pass

    7th race-#6 Rushing fall (5/2) second best bet-with the 1,3,4,7

    8th race-8,10 with the 2,6,8,10

    9th race-#13 Factor This ((8-1) with the 2,10 If you want to spread use the 5,11

    10th race- box the 1,4,9,10 I like the #4 Horologist (8-1) the most

    11th race-3,6 with the 1,2,9

    12 race- The Classic-I like the 9 Authentic (6-1), I also like a bit of a long one #6 Higher Power(20-1) with the 4,8

    Good luck to all and as always let’s go get the bad guys,

    Vin

    1. Very solid advice per usual, thanks Mr. O’C. A safe and speedy journey to all BC horses and horses everywhere today…

    2. Nice selection of Authentic. Many others did not pick him in their top three or four. He nailed down 3YO colt and HOY honors at Eclipse Awards with this impressive win. At least that’s how I see it.

  6. There are a couple of typing errors it as the South Bay’s newspaper used to state ” Some people are always looking for mistakes and we usually have something for them to point out to us ” !✌️

  7. Bits, You might enjoy watching a you-tube clip or two from the now somewhat dated Steve McQueen movie entitled “The Reivers”. Just for the enjoyment of “admiring” them all is all. Search for the horse racing scenes on Google. I often took my boys to the morning workouts at Belmont Park years back. No betting in the mornings mind you, but simply beautiful to watch the equines in training. Nick Zito even came over talk with us and tossed a football with my kids for five minutes or so, only days after winning with Strike The Gold. Racetracks are indeed a special place in the am. hours. Nobody with their noses up in the air. Beautiful sport with many class acts supporting the sport including regular guys like John Pricci.

    1. I have seen plenty of am workouts in the silent grey shadows of the morning in Delaware. But if it weren’t for temporarily trying to impress a young,strong and nice looking female trying to make it in racing I would have never gotten out of bed at 4,5 am. Around the dogs or straight,going along is not that thrilling.I preferred being close to the barn area,watching them relax,eat and show off.My Konica came in handy.Too many of them did not retire well from the betting sport.Same happens in smaller tracks, unfortunately. Thanks x the info even if I was never a fan of S. McQ. He
      had a limited range,in my opinion. I never was clocker.

  8. I am saddened by how longtime horseplayers and current casual bettors have abandoned the joy of handicapping seriously thoroughbreds and have been sucked into vertical and horizontal exotic wages. Horseplayers with years of following the thoroughbreds now stoop to 50 cent trifectas, and pick threes, fours, et cetera; and dump on twenty-cent supers. Daily Racing Form, past performances (what’s that, Alice?).

    I would get involved with these extremely difficult bets to cash if someone would show me how to handicap a plodder to come in second, third, fourth, et cetera

  9. To each his or her own, and I say that in a good way Wendell. All I know is that a reserve exacta box yesterday is what landed me in “Schaefer City” today. Any dollars I benefit from this goes to a local foodbank on Monday any hoot. An awful lot of hungry people out there of late. No work, etc. At the end of the day, this is all about just having some fun for a few of us lucky ones.

    I’ll never fault you for your win only wagers mind you. I absolutely respect and admire your discipline Wendell. On a side note, feeling pretty good today. My biggest win the past two days has been Lincoln’s Angels. Bigger payout than any other race in America.

    Riders Up! If I get beat, I hope it’s your horse Mr. Fosters. I’m mostly Irish WMC, so please forgive any offense if taken wrong.

    Good’ay mate’.

    What shall I say about the Irish?
    The utterly impractical, never predictable
    Something irascible, quite inexplicable Irish.
    Strange blend of shyness, pride and conceit,
    And stubborn refusal to bow in defeat.
    He’s spoiling and ready to argue and fight,
    Yet the smile of a child fills his soul with delight.
    His eyes are the quickest to well up in tears,
    Yet his strength is the strongest to banish your fears.
    His faith is as fierce as his devotion is grand,
    And there’s no middle ground on which he will stand.
    He’s wild and he’s gentle.
    He’s good and he’s bad.
    He’s proud and he’s humble.
    He’s happy and he’s sad.
    He’s in love with the ocean, the earth and the skies.
    He’s enamored with beauty wherever it lies.
    He’s victor and victim, a star and a clod,
    But mostly he’s Irish in love with his God.

  10. “That’s it” said Popeye. “I can’t stands it no more Olive, I ain’t writing no more today unless its a thank you once more to Mr. Pricci.” Whatever the rest of the day brings, win or lose, I’m having some fun and enjoying another great day. Good to be alive is all. Grateful for that. Peace Out.

  11. The logic behind the Consensus was that since they had the usual ML contenders as choices,esp.with allowance and better races,when it came time to check $ bet if there was another horse getting attention That became my key, or XR$.
    Another good reason why I do not bet the first week of any new scheduled track after having seen the Long Shots( $ 200 plus ,$ 78 ) is today at the old Aquaduct.Yeah,check the PPs on those winners and explain how they won… Cannot image those pick 3,4,5 6 prices.Better play tonight’s powerball with the odds of over 300 million – 1,but only for two bucks. Always been skeptical of what ” might be going on” there,,for the past 50 yrs. ” My bad” as juvenile minds say,But cannot convince me otherwise.” It ain’t no Belmont”!It never was !✌️🥳

  12. I have seen plenty of am workouts in the silent grey shadows of the morning in Delaware. But if it weren’t for temporarily trying to impress a young,strong and nice looking female trying to make it in racing I would have never gotten out of bed at 4,5 am. Around the dogs or straight,going along is not that thrilling.I preferred being close to the barn area,watching them relax,eat and show off.My Konica came in handy.Too many of them did not retire well from the betting sport.Same happens in smaller tracks, unfortunately. Thanks x the info even if I was never a fan of S. McQ. He
    had a limited range,in my opinion. I never was clocker.

  13. Well,no matter what gimmick we try to hit,vertical or sideways,I always keep in mind that unless we come to a decision on which two horses we are using first,the rest is just a crapshoot,except for the last race of the the picks( 4,5,or 6 ) when that extre added longshot not only might make the difference between cashing or ripping a ticket but we usually root for it to win a bigger prize. Reading the PP s is essential! I’d rather skip the early races and absorb the later ones than bet early without any clues besides the odds/jockey/trainer info which is superficial. That is another reason why some of us Rarely get involved with more than the main track,ie, Belmont, Gulf.,CD or Saratoga. Seriously,there is no time for other outside stuff,even if we read it the night before,leaving notes,numbers on the pages involved. I’ m not even curious of what’s happening in a smaller track,,it is a distraction that I do not want or crave. Improve on what you do best. I first bet exactas and my main choice to w/p….the rest comes later if there will be time and possible chances of cashing in. I rarely dive into pick 4,5,6. Nothing to do with $ being available.Even if one time it cost me a couple of dozens of thousands of dollars, It Ain’t Me! I enjoy playing one or two races at a time and it satisfies me,,even if sometimes I would not know the horse’s weight or breeding or even his/her name during those 5-6 betting races.No,I rarely play more than higher claimers,allowance or MSW races.No maiden nor cheapies. Do what you like,Blind Faith used to sing.Your way.Bettors,gamblers in general,do not listen or absorb other people’s input.We like to win,lose Our Way,as the guy in the old NY Lotto ad used to say,” I enjoy losing my money my way”…with a big smile.😉😉😉

    1. Do not overlook the fact that some really disciplined bettors,or spot bettors,Only check,bet some distance races and not the others. I knew,RIP, such a character who only bet races between 6F – 8F races and sometimes skipping the tricky 6.5 and 7 F races. While doing so he could have bet more than a couple tracks at a time since so many are routes and he had time between them. He loved Finger Lakes where with basic Track variant +Speed rating he could pick a horse within a couple of minutes in its several sprint races.Good notice ! Another guy who claimed to know Turf races,trainers,breeding only bet those,at any distance! Choose your Own weapon ,,and pill !

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