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The Conscience of Thoroughbred Racing


If Tampa Bay has a reputation for anything, it’s for its remarkable turf course that on balance produces bias-free results and big fields.

Today’s finale has attracted 11 and its a tricky read. The three contenders all exit the same race and the video does not reveal anything obvious, so fair value, even with a post time favorite, should offer fair odds.

From the rail out, the triad is Haniel (9-2), Sundrenched (3-1 and Jost Sayin’ (5-2). You decide after looking at the Tampa Bay Race Replay Center from DEC 20, RACE 9.

(Until Tampa can populate a sufficient You Tube library of races, we’ll take you there. Simply click on the Tampa Bay link immediately on HRI’s homepage and you;ll be directed to Tampa’s Replay Center on their website, Click on date and then race).

Of the three named, we prefer two, Haniel and Jost Sayin. Actually, there isn’t much separating the early line favorite from Sundrenched but Jost Sayin has the better turn of foot, our preference when compared to grinder types such as Sundrenched.

But Haniel is the one calling to us. He breaks well from the gate, has tactical speed but, admittedly, has a tendency to weaken. But the thing is owns better company lines, is making his third start off a layup and his last race was, well, check it out:

After establishing good position on the fence, he steadied very slightly entering the far turn then was checked out of the race mid-turn for reasons unknown to us.

However, just when you think he’s done, he finds energy and makes a nice late surge from the back of the pack. It should set him up nicely for this.

If he’s anything near 5-1, we’ll take a straight win ticket and key-box exactas and trirectas with the other two. Jost Sayin’ does seem more reliable, has that late kick, and Raul Mena gets good late run from his turf mounts–showing a small profit given those dynamics. Early odds of 5-2 are fair.

Price will guide me; we suggest you follow suit.

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2 Responses

  1. PSA: The 50 cent tri box is often a more risky wager yes, but at the same time, at a cost of only $3, it indeed can be more risk adverse. John’s three runners boxed scored yet again today. For many of us, it is notso much the amount won, as opposed to the enjoyment of just cashing tickets and keeping the account balance positive. Jost sayin’……….another nice call today John Boy.

  2. Thanks McD, yes, having some good fortune at Tampa, Laurel we’re struggling with small fields, lack of opportunities but the real PSA there is pointing out races for readers to look at, and to use my research to inform their own opinions. Y

    You know me from my Newsday days, so you know I take this responsibility seriously. Thanks again!

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