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PLAYBOOKSPORTS: BEST COLLEGE AND PRO UPSETS FOR THE WEEKEND OF SEP 30 – OCT 2

Purdue over MINNESOTA by 1: Minnesota head coach PJ Fleck is known for his non-stop mantra “Row The Boat” but lately his Golden Gophers have been “Burning Down the House”, getting all the talking heads chattering about Minny being 7-0 SU and 6-0 ATS going back to last season. The Boilermakers are coming off a shaky 28- 26 win over FAU in the shadow of The Neil Armstrong Hall of Engineering. Before the season, Purdue was a 3-point dog in this matchup, but Our Guys in the Desert said “PU” to Purdue and shifted the line into double-digits. This works just beautifully for Head Coach Jeff Brohm, whose 9-3 lifetime ATS mark gives us a confidence boost. Of course, it would be nice if Brohm knew who his starting QB will be, Aidan O’Connell or former UCLA Bruin Austin Burton, who performed capably versus Florida Atlantic. This may seem like taking the boat over the rocket ship but before this game launches, don’t forget the next game for Minnesota is a big-time revenge match against Illinois, who scored a big 14-6 upset last year. That, and the Gophers being a less than golden 0-3 ATS prior to playing the Illini suggest the one small step for mankind you take is on Purdue, as instructed by THE CLINCHER: Purdue head coach Jeff Brohm is 20-6 ATS as a dog of 4 or more points in his career, including 11-0 ATS when his team is NOT coming off a double-digit win.

IOWA over Michigan by 6

Laying points on the road is difficult for most teams, but for Michigan it can be extremely terrifying in the tough Big Ten. In fact, the Wolverines are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six as a road favorite against Iowa and have not won a game in Kinnick Stadium since 2005. So, after opening the season with four home games in September, the Wolves have the look of the next juggernaut ready to fall. Sure, they have stud RB Blake Corum, who rushed for 243 yards last week against Maryland, but inexperienced QB J.J. McCarthy could find it rough going against one of the best defenses in the nation – and this week’s INCREDIBLE STAT. The 23 points given up by the Hawkeyes in their first four games are the fewest scored on the team since 1966. In addition, keep in mind that Iowa will be looking to avenge last season’s loss to Michigan,42-3, in the Big Ten title game. This is such a strong play for us that we offer not just one, but TWO Clinchers. CLINCHER #1: College football home dogs like Iowa, who won 10-plus games the previous season, are 3-0 ATS in Game Five versus undefeated foes playing their first road game of the season. CLINCHER #2: 4-0 College football favorites in their first road game are 1-7 ATS since 1980 in Game Five versus foes coming off consecutive wins.

NFL

New Orleans over Minnesota by 3

Welcome to the first of three fish and chips affairs to be held across the pond in 2022, with other international games taking place in Mexico, and another debuting in Germany. While this game matches a pair of new head coaches, it is a re-run of the “Minnesota Miracle” that occurred in the 2017 playoffs. These two teams have met three times since, including in the 2019 playoffs, this year it pairs two teams that both just missed the postseason in 2021, each with new head coaches. With it, not a lot is new as far as the Saints are concerned as they rank last in the league in net TO’s (-6) entering this scrum. They are, however, 18-9 SU and 19-7-1 ATS in games against the NFC North, including 7-1 ATS when coming off a loss, which is a nice counter to the Vikes’ 1-4 ATS ledger against teams from the NFC South. With New Orleans bringing 91 YPG the better defense in this contest, the points figure to put us in the ‘chips’ today. Note: 18 games this season have been decided by 3 or fewer points – most in NFL history thru the first three weeks of the season. This one has that same look and feel.

Arizona over CAROLINA by 8

Yes, the Cardinals are yet another slow starting team, having been outscored 56-13 in the fi rst half of games this season. Fortunately for them, the Panthers offense is more whisper-like than bombastic as it is ranks No. 30 overall, gaining a mere 276 YPG. Worse, Carolina has struggled at home under head coach Matt Rule with a 5-13 SUATS overall mark, including 2-7 SUATS as a favorite. Furthermore, the well-oiled machine chips in noting that NFL home teams in Game Two of a three-game home stand, coming off a SU underdog win, are just 6-10-1 ATS versus non division foes, including 0-3 SUATS when favored by fewer than three points. Toss in the Panthers’ 2-6 ATS record in the second of a three-game home stand and suddenly we’ve got the makings of a wobbly home favorite. And to knock the legs out from underneath this host we look to THE CLINCHER: Arizona head coach Kliff Kingsbury is 14-4-1 ATS as a road dog during the regular season with the Cardinals, including 7-0 SUATS the last seven games

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