Ucla over USC by 1
If not for the torn ACL suffered by QB J.T. Daniels, we may never
have been exposed to the brilliance of USC freshman Kedon Slovis,
whose 400+ yard passing effort against California was his 3rd in the
last four games. It was especially impressive when you realize that
the Cal secondary is no milquetoast unit – the Bears had allowed
only 9 TD passes all season and just fi ve completions of over 40 yards.
Slovis threw for 4 TDs and connected for 3 plays over 45 yards. He’s
now drooling at the prospect of going up against the Bruins, the No.
128th-ranked Pass Efficiency Defense. The Men of Troy have been
trying to chase down the Utes for a shot at the Pac-12 title game, but
still need Utah to lose to Arizona or at Colorado to get there, and
that’s an unlikely outcome. One of the Trojans’ major problems is a
rank of No. 125 in most Penalty Yards Per Game (72.6). Meanwhile,
the Bruins are still technically alive in this year’s bowl chase as they
need wins today and at home against California next week, so this
is a huge game for Chip Kelly’s minions. Kelly is 4-1 SUATS versus the
Trojans (won 34-27 as 3-point home dog last year) and he’s off the
worst loss of his career last week. Remember, the line on this game
at the Golden Nugget in their ‘Games of the Year’ before the season
started was USC -5, so we recommend grabbing the points in this
overlay. That is confirmed by THE CLINCHER: Chip Kelly is 20-9
SU and 19-10 ATS away in his college career, including 11-4
SUATS versus .636 or greater opponents.
TEMPLE over Cincinnati by 3
Temple’s been a giant-killer at home with four outright upsets, but
on the road, the Owls are only 1-3 ATS. They will have an opportunity
to step up, yet it could come at a price to the American Conference,
who has three 1-loss teams, including today’s opponent, Cincinnati.
Temple should be confident coming to the Queen City at 4-0 SUATS
over Cincy. The Owls are super stout, owning the No. 3 team in the
nation in Red Zone Defense, and they are 28-13 ATS off a home
win against a conference rival. No two ways about it, the Bearcats
are playing with fire, needing late-game heroics to knock off losing
teams like East Carolina and South Florida this month, and they are
only 1-3 ATS in their last four contests. Despite riding an 8-game
winning streak, we still contend the Bearcats are frauds: Listed No.
128 in Penalty Yards Per Game (77.8), while being outyarded -20 YPG
since October (1-6 ITS last six games – outgained only Connecticut in
the span). Cincinnati is only 3-9 ATS versus .600 > conference foes
and a miserable 3-12 ATS playing with conference revenge. Temple
understands a win here and a loss by the Bearcats at Memphis
next week opens the door to a possible East Division crown in the
American. (Voting tabulation of a 3-way tie with UCF). We’ll call for
the upset with added help from THE CLINCHER: Cincinnati is 3-7-1
ATS in Last Home Games, including 0-4-1 ATS versus winning
opponents. (The piper gets paid)
