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The Conscience of Thoroughbred Racing

BEST NFL UPSETS WEEK 8

PHILLY over Buffalo by 10

 This is our annual ABO game – Always Beware of the Obvious. It would
be diffi cult fi nding a team that looked as bad in a prime-time game
than the Eagles did last Sunday night at Dallas. There they were, on
full display for the nation to see. Not only did they lay a tyrannosaurus
egg, they coughed up 400-plus yards for the second-straight game.
Hardly attributes of a team picked to win its division and make it
back to the Super Bowl. And now faced with playing its third straight
road game, on the surface it doesn’t look that promising. But before
Philly fans look for a bridge to jump off, they might want to consider
this from the always reliable well-oiled machine: NFL road teams in
the 3rd of three straight away games are 93-113-2 ATS during the
regular season since 1980, but 40-26 ATS when coming off consecutive
losses (24-24 SU and 32-16 ATS since 1991), including 20-6 ATS in nondivision games and 11-1 ATS when coming off a loss of more than 10
points. On top of that, the Eagles themselves are 6-3 ATS in the 3rd
of three straight away games, including 5-1 ATS as dogs. On the fl ip
side, the 5-1 Bills own wins against teams that are 6-25 on the season.
Remember, the combination of Philadelphia’s roster resembling a
M*A*S*H. unit and the Cowboys returning Amari Cooper, Randall
Cobb, Tyrion Smith and La’el Collins to the field did the Eagles in on
Sunday night. That won’t be the case today. Not with THE CLINCHER:
The Eagles are 12-1 SU and 13-0 ATS away in the regular season
after scoring 10 or fewer points.

LA Rams over Green Bay by 10


Uh oh. Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers is starting to get comfortable
in Matt LeFleur’s new offense, and that should terrify everyone. Mr.
Rodgers moved his way into MVP neighborhood when he finally
broke out and posted a perfect 158.3 Passer Rating for the first time
in his career (and second time in Packer history – Bart Starr managed
the feat in 1960 on just nine pass attempts) in last week’s 42-24 rout
of the Raiders. The Leader of the Pack is 22-8 SU and 19-10-1 ATS
in non-division games during October, and 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in his
career against AFC West opponents. So then why is it we’re casting
a look at the Chiefs with our one good eye you ask? For openers,
Kansas City BBQ master Andy Reid is 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS in his career
against NFC North foes coming off a win of more than 10 points,
including 5-0 SUATS in games with an Over/Under win total of 44 or
more points. And then there is the beauty from the archives of our
QB Coaches database finds Matt Moore 15-15 in his NFL career, but
20-10 ATS – including 16-4 ATS behind teams that are .200 or greater
on the season. You know of our love for rallying behind a backup
quarterback in his first start for an injured starter (Patrick Mahomes).
Toss in the Chiefs’ stellar 8-4 SUATS record home on Sunday nights,
along with Green Bay’s ugly 1-8 ATS record away from home when
coming off an AFC encounter, and we’re ready to seal the deal.

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