Washington St over UTAH by 3
The Cougars are coming off that 67-63 comeback win by UCLA that
must make Mike Leach run to the vomitorium every time he thinks
about it. Was that 32-point rally by the Bruins the biggest of all time,
you ask? Not by number of points – Michigan State holds that honor
with a 35-point comeback against Northwestern in 2006, and the
Bruins themselves had a comeback from a 44-10 deficit to beat Texas
A&M, 45-44, two years ago. The bizarre aspect of this one was that
a 3-12 UCLA team under Chip Kelly that had scored just 14 points
in each of their first three games this season would end up scoring
43 points in an 11:17 span of the 3rd and 4th quarters on Saturday
night. But there was a bright side: another exceptional QB in a long
line of WSU signal-callers tossed 9 TDs in a 570-yard effort. It’s safe
to say he won’t be doing that against Kyle Whittingham’s Utah
bunch. While we realize the Utes are snarling after their first loss
of the season at USC last week, and they have revenge on the brain
from a 28-24 loss at Wazzu last season, laying points off your first
loss of the season to a high-octane opponent is not something we
would support. Besides, the Cougs have covered four straight times
in this series and are 7-0 ATS versus conference revenge overall, not
to mention 5-0 ATS in Game Five. The one thing we know for sure
is contained inside THE CLINCHER: WSU head coach Mike Leach
is 32-20 SU an 34-17-1 ATS in conference games when coming
off a loss, including 10-1 ATS away from home when coming
off an ATS loss in which they were laying double-digits.
South Florida over SMU by 6
Head coach Sonny Dykes was a rising star after doing well at Louisiana
Tech, which led to the Cal job. After four years of no defense and not
enough victories in Berkeley, he got his walking papers and landed
at SMU where he went 5-7 in 2018. Fast forward to now and his
Mustangs are 4-0 SUATS after their upset at TCU – the team’s first 4-0
start since 1984 and its first win in the ‘alphabet rivalry’ since 2011.
Go figure. This is the start of AAC action for both teams and South
Florida coach Charley Strong needs to start accumulating ‘W’ s or
he’s in danger of being fired for the second time in four years. This
is no bull: USF is 6-12-1 ATS after a bye during the regular season,
including 3-8-1 ATS in Tampa. However, when digging deeper into
the numbers, we discover South Florida has a 16-6 ATS record at
home after allowing 3 points or less in the first half of the previous
game. On the other side of the coin, the Mustangs are just 3-12-1 SU
and 4-12 ATS away when coming off a SU underdog win, including
2-8 SU and 1-9 ATS in conference contests. Besides, it’s not like
coach Dykes has suddenly turned into a defensive guru with his
team surrendering 28 PPG. While the role change is not to our liking
on the Ponies, we really like THE CLINCHER: SMU is 0-9 ATS as a
favorite after a win by 3 or less points
