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The Conscience of Thoroughbred Racing

‘GOING GULFSTREAM’ NOV 11

Talk about a two-horse race to begin the Gulfstream racing week, a check of the ‘Going Gulfstream’ video presents a conundrum, although the early line makes the betting decision easier to reconcile.

Arrow Shape (10-1) hasn’t run since but that shouldn’t be an issue since trainer Laura Cazeres is 17% profitable with layups of 90+ days, and this filly won on debut. Furthermore, she’s a bullet from the gate and is proven as a speed-duel winner.

The issue is she had advantageous pole position in that 4-1/2 furlong first run vs. $50,000 maiden-claiming company: Check replay: Gulfstream Park, MAY 6, Race 2

Now class and experience wise, Muted (1-1), a blowout winner on debut,  has it all over her rival. She ran as fast on performance figures—though her rival has more upside there—and has two races, both at today’s trip. And her outside position is a tactical advantage.

But when defeated (video for Gulfstream, OCT 14, Race 2), she broke tardily then rushed up, had inside position and a tactical advantage over her rival but weekend. Do we get the MSW debut winner, or the filly who lost a heads-up battle?

Muted is by Into Mischief from a Distorted Humor mare and she would appear to have a better future, has position and hot riding Jaramillo and is the most probable winner.

Personally, we’ll take Muted to win, no price restrictions, make a saver win wager on  Arrow Shape (5-1 minimum odds) and a quinella.

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